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Mexico & Nafta - June 2012 (ISSN 1741-444X)

Despite a belated ‘Mexican Spring’, Peña Nieto and the PRI are nearly home

Barely a month from the 1 July presidential election in Mexico it looks increasingly unlikely that there will be a surprise outcome. The latest opinion polls confirm a long-running trend that sees Enrique Peña Nieto of the main traditional Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) as the first choice of the 80m-strong electorate. Some polls suggest that Peña Nieto now has more than 40% of voting intentions, a double-digit advantage over his two main rivals, who now appear to be running neck-and-neck, mostly as a result of a fall in support for Josefina Vázquez Mota, the candidate for ruling Partido Acción Nacional (PAN). For the first time since she became the PAN candidate in February, some surveys now place Vázquez Mota behind her rival on the left, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), who is running on a ticket for the Movimiento Progresista coalition, comprising his Partido de la Revolución Democrática (PRD), Partido del Trabajo (PT) and Movimiento Ciudadano. The fact that a former president of the PAN, Manuel Espino, in mid May pledged his support for Peña Nieto seemed to confirm his apparently unassailable position.

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