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Weekly Report - 03 April 2014 (WR-14-13)

TRACKING TRENDS

COSTA RICA | Gearing up for the run-off. The campaigns have closed ahead of the 6 April run-off between Luis Guillermo Solís of the centre-left Partido Acción Ciudadana (PAC) and former San José mayor, Johnny Araya (1998-2001; 2003-2013), of the centrist ruling Partido Liberación Nacional (PLN). Solís remains the firm favourite following Araya’s shock announcement last month of his plans to abandon his campaign [WR-14-09]. However, it is worth pointing out that PLN members have continued campaigning in his absence. Costa Rica’s constitution technically prohibits candidates from pulling out of a run-off (Art.138) – meaning that the vote must go ahead and Solís has been focussing on ensuring voter turnout, aware that high abstention could undermine his mandate. A future Solís government will already be tested by the fact that the PAC will have just 13 seats in the new 57-member national assembly (which is still the second highest presence, after the PLN which has 18). Solís has told reporters that he is aiming to get 1m votes. According to the national electoral authorities, a total of 2.05m voters cast their vote in the 2 February first round (out of an electorate of 3.08m) with abstention running at 31.8%. In the first round, the PAC won a total of 629,866 votes (30.6%) while the PLN won 610,634 (29.7%).

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