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Weekly Report - 02 October 2014 (WR-14-39)

BRAZIL: Rousseff’s election to lose

September was a cruel month for Marina Silva, the presidential candidate of the opposition Partido Socialista Brasileiro (PSB). She started the month just four percentage points behind President Dilma Rousseff, of the ruling Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT). By 1 October, just four days before the first round of elections, Silva was around 14 points adrift. For the first time in many months, Brazil’s election analysts contemplated the possibility of either a first round victory for Rousseff, or even Aécio Neves, of the opposition Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira (PSDB), making it through to the second round instead of Silva. On current trends, however, a run-off between Rousseff and Silva on 26 October appears the most likely scenario.

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