Back

LatinNews Daily Report - 03 October 2014

A tired Silva opens the way for Neves in second round

Development: On 2 October Brazil’s presidential candidates held their final televised debate before the 5 October general elections.

Significance: A bad-tempered, and at times chaotic, debate shed little light on what any of the candidates might do in office. If anything, the most substantive exchanges were between ‘nanicos’, the also-ran candidates who have no chance of making it through to the second round. Among the leading three, the debate was notable in that President Dilma Rousseff (Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT) did not slip up, while Marina Silva (Partido Socialista Brasileiro, PSB), the president’s erstwhile closest rival, was unimpressive. A rejuvenated Aécio Neves (Partido da Social Democracia Brasileiro, PSDB) was plausible and measured. With Silva sinking fast in the polls, Neves may just have done enough to ensure he makes it through to the second round.

  • Over and over again, candidates from both the Left and the Right raised the issue of corruption in their head-to-head exchanges with the president. Rousseff rarely answered any of their questions directly, but blithely reeled off statistical achievements. Her only direct comments on the issue of corruption was to claim credit for personally firing those responsible for malfeasance at Petrobras, the state oil company, and promising to ban ‘Caixa 2’ political donations (the slush funds for campaigning that come from private companies).
  • In fact, the PT would like to replace campaign financing with a system based on congressional representation; given its size, the PT would receive the lion’s share of any such financing, much as it now dominates the free-to-air campaign broadcasts in the run-up to the election.
  • After weeks of PT television adverts showing Brazilian families’ food literally vanishing from their plates under an imagined Silva presidency, the PSB candidate has found her promises that she would not touch the 'Bolsa Família' benefits programme drowned out. To combat that, in the debate she promised to increase the stipend, adding a 13th month salary (Brazilian workers get an extra salary in December) to ensure that poor families can afford a decent Christmas.
  • But elsewhere Silva was weak where she needed to be strong. On the question of central bank autonomy, one of Silva’s campaign promises, Rousseff managed to successfully muddy the waters by extemporising on the difference between autonomy and independence. Neves also attacked Silva for staying in the government during the 'mensalão' cash-for-votes scandal and questioned why some of her party's candidates were disgraced former members of the PT.
  • Neves, by contrast, was clear and succinct. Unlike Silva or Rousseff, he did not find himself caught short by the very short answer format demanded by the organisers of the debate. When Rousseff attacked him over his apparent obsession with privatisation, Neves pointed to the successful sell-offs managed by the PSDB in the past, such as fixed-line telephones. Without going into any detail about what he would do with the state-owned oil firm, Petrobras (only one fringe candidate has talked openly about privatisation), he insisted that the status quo could not continue. He was also clear about his plans to continue with both Bolsa Família and the Minha Casa Minha Vida housing programme, while questioning the value of others, such as Pronatec, a technical training school.

Looking Ahead: According to Ibope, Rousseff is on course to win 47% of valid votes; Silva is five percentage points ahead of Neves. Datafolha, however, puts Rousseff on 40%, with Neves (21%) and Silva (24%) in a technical tie. Those who don’t know are on 5%, with those planning to vote for none of the above also on 5%. In last night’s debate, Silva will have done little to persuade those people to back her on 5 October.

End of preview - This article contains approximately 611 words.

Subscribers: Log in now to read the full article

Not a Subscriber?

Choose from one of the following options

LatinNews
Intelligence Research Ltd.
167-169 Great Portland Street,
5th floor,
London, W1W 5PF - UK
Phone : +44 (0) 203 695 2790
Contact
You may contact us via our online contact form
Copyright © 2022 Intelligence Research Ltd. All rights reserved.