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Security & Strategic Review - January 2015 (ISSN 1741-4202)

BELIZE: Homicide & other crime data dissected

Belizeans seem unsure about how to assess the public security situation over the past year. Some celebrate the fact that the country’s homicide rate per 100,000 inhabitants was the third-lowest since 2008 while others note that the number of homicide cases was 22% higher than in 2013 — a year when Belize was able to boast, inaccurately, that it was the only country in Central America to record a falling homicide rate. Statistics show steady escalation since 1993.

The Belize Police Department (BPD) has reported, on the strength of data up to 19 December, that the number of homicide cases was indeed up by 22% (to 121), which raised the homicide rate by four points to 34 per 100,000. Overall, the BPD reports, major crimes were up by 6% last year. This, however, results from declines in the number of robberies (by 0.7% to 294) and burglaries (by 7.8% to 821) offsetting rises in the number of cases of theft (by 18% to 1,192) and rape (by 62% to 42). It is, of course, the absolute numbers that make the difference, as variations between small numbers loom larger in percentage terms.

The police’s arrest rates have not kept up with the increases in certain categories of crime. Overall, arrests of suspects of major crimes were down by 15%; in the specific case of homicides, by 24% — corresponding to 28% of all homicide cases (a gross figure that reflects the absence of a case-by-case breakdown).

Following a chart compiled from BPD data by the newspaper Amandala, three phases of escalation of homicides can be discerned since 1993:

▪ In the first one, from 1993 to 2001, the number of cases averaged 49 a year (ranging in all but one year from 42 to 62), while the rates per 100,000 averaged 22 (ranging from 21 to 25 in eight of the nine years).

▪ In the second one, from 2002 to 2009, the annual number of cases averaged 87 (ranging in all but one year from 86 to 103) and the rates averaged 32 (ranging from 32 to 35 in all but one year).

▪ In the third phase, from 2010 to 2014, the number of cases averaged 124 (ranging from 121 to 145 in four of the five years) and the rates averaged 38 (ranging from 34 to 45 in all but one year).

Homicide in Belize 2005-2014

Number of  cases & rate per 100,000 inhabitants

 

 

 

 

 

 

Year

Cases

Rate

Year

Cases

Rate

2005

81

30

2010

132

43

2006

92

33

2011

125

40

2007

95

33

2012

145

45

2008

103

35

2013

99

30

2009

97

32

2014*

121

34

*To 19 December.

 

Source: Belize Police Department.

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