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Weekly Report - 30 July 2015 (WR-15-30)

VENEZUELA: On Chávez’s 61st birthday, Venezuela is not a happy place

A damning report on the parlous state of Caracas hospitals broadcast on 29 July by the UK’s award-winning Channel 4 News, not exactly known for its sympathies with the Right, doubtless would be received with scorn by President Nicolás Maduro as part of the international conspiracy against the country with the largest oil reserves in the world after Saudi Arabia. It is difficult to know how his revered late predecessor, Hugo Chávez (1999-2013), who on 28 July would have turned 61, would have responded to such damaging global images of his homeland. Harder still is to guess at how Venezuelan voters will act in the forthcoming midterm legislative elections on 6 December next.

A new Venebarómetro poll released this week put support for the Maduro government at just under a quarter of national voters (24.7%), while a full 84% said the domestic situation was negative (aggregating ‘regular/bad’, ‘bad’ and ‘very bad’). Three quarters of the 1,200 respondents, interviewed in their homes between 28 May and 11 June, said that supply shortages and insecurity were the main problems facing the country, followed by the high cost of living (cited by 43%), unemployment (20%) and the health service (8%) – notably these were cited as issues by similar proportions of opposition and government supporters across the country and with little variation by income decile. In other words, these are problems running across the country and throughout all households, albeit with lower-income households the worst affected.

Over four fifths (82%) of respondents said their household budget was insufficient to cover food, medicine, clothing, transport, and other basic costs in the previous month. Over half – 57.6% – blamed the Maduro government for the continuing shortages of basic goods, while 31.5% blamed retailers and/or producers. Meanwhile 71.2% rated the government’s performance negatively (again aggregating ‘regular/bad’, ‘bad’ and ‘very bad’). Over three quarters (76.1%) said they felt that Maduro government was “removed” (‘alejada’) from them.

Given the domestic economic crisis, these findings are hardly all that surprising. The government regularly contests the impartiality of polling companies, and there is a longstanding trend of certain companies finding very much in favour of the government and others coming up with a strong pro-opposition bias. However, IVAD, which carries out the Venebarómetro survey and might be considered more pro-opposition, found that support for main opposition alliance, Mesa de la Unidad Democrática (MUD) was middling at best; 48% rated it positively and 46% negatively, hardly a ringing endorsement. Interestingly, the student movement was considered the group working best ‘for the wellbeing of the country’ by 72.8% of respondents, followed by the Catholic Church (64.4%). Again, the MUD was well down at 40%, while the national assembly was second to last, with only 32.1% saying it was acting positively; 62.8% negatively (In last place was the ruling Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela [PSUV] with 27.6%).

Ahead of the mid-term legislative elections, 67.4% said they intended to vote, (down a little from 68% in May). Of these, 40.5% were inclined towards opposition candidates, 22.2% towards government candidates and a not-insignificant 27.6% towards independent candidates. This is interesting, as there are not many independent candidates/parties in this bitterly polarised country, and it suggests that people would like ‘a third way’ option, if one were available. Voter apathy thus may become a serious issue for both sides. Moreover, when asked to self-define their political leanings, 36% said they were independent, up from 24% in April, while 36% said they were MUD-leaning, down from 40% in April (government supporters fell to less than 30%). These numbers simply are not going to get the MUD the congressional majority it is aiming for.

  • MUD

The Mesa de la Unidad Democrática (MUD)’s message is either not appealing, or – as is more likely – is simply too ill defined to have any resonance. Venezuelan voters want more than to simply lodge a protest vote against the Maduro government and the ruling Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela (PSUV), they want hope. As yet, the MUD is not offering that.

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