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Security & Strategic Review - August 2015 (ISSN 1741-4202)
MEXICO-US: Drawing conclusions from data on seizures
It has become a commonplace that laxer treatment of cannabis in some US states has dealt a heavy blow to Mexico’s cannabis sales, and that the rising US demand for methamphetamines has made this drug a more lucrative proposition for Mexican traffickers than shipping South American cocaine. Most of this reasoning is based on reported seizures of the various drugs. But seizures are not reliable indicators of overall flows. The only certainty they provide is that the flow is greater than the volumes seized. For the rest, they reflect the ability to interdict and the skill in avoiding interdiction. A new set of data on drug seizures calls for a review of recent assumptions.
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