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Brazil & Southern Cone - March 2016 (ISSN 1741-4431)

BRAZIL: Closing time at the last-chance saloon

At the time of going to press, former president Lula da Silva (2003-2010) was still deciding whether to accept a job in the cabinet of President Dilma Rousseff. If he does, as is widely anticipated, it represents perhaps the last throw of the dice to save the government. Such a move would offer a degree of legal protection for Lula, by ensuring that he can only be tried in the “privileged forum” of the federal supreme court (STF), and it may help ensure the loyalty of the government’s main coalition partners, Partido do Movimento Democrático Brasileiro (PMDB). But it would come at the cost of massive public outrage, which the government may have underestimated. Financial markets now appear to be betting that Rousseff’s government will not survive much longer, though it is deeply unclear what follows.

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