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Security & Strategic Review - March 2016 (ISSN 1741-4202)

Brazil in a political risk danger zone

Brazil’s long-simmering political crisis stepped up a gear in March through a series of rapid and dramatic political developments. The Lava Jato (‘car wash’) scandal spread further, threatening to directly implicate both President Dilma Rousseff and her mentor and supporter, former President Luis Inácio ‘Lula’ da Silva (2003-2011). In a potentially key turning point, on 29 March the Partido do Movimento Democrático Brasileiro (PMDB) announced that it was deserting the ruling coalition and asking its seven ministers to resign from the government. The PMDB’s defection may tip the political balance in favour of impeachment, meaning that President Rousseff could be replaced as early as May or June. This could mean Latin America’s largest country is entering a dangerous period of political risk, including a rising threat of violence on the streets. Here we seek to assess the resilience of Brazilian democracy.

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