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Andean Group - May 2016 (ISSN 1741-4466)

ECUADOR: Preparing for post-Correa challenge

President Rafael Correa signed off on 24 May by delivering his last state-of-the-nation address to the national assembly after nine years in government. By his own admission, Correa’s final year in power will be “tough” as he tries to “steer the ship of state to a safe port” in the midst of “a perfect storm”. The economy is reeling from a combination of “the lowest oil prices in history”, the appreciation of the US dollar, reduced exports, and a lower tax take, not to mention April’s devastating earthquake (see overleaf), which have all compelled Correa to undertake “by far the biggest adjustment in the whole of Latin America”, badly damaging his popularity. At some stage in the coming months either he or the ruling Alianza País (AP) will need to decide upon a presidential candidate to try to succeed him in general elections next February.

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