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LatinNews Daily - 18 June 2018

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Survey shows unhappy Brazilians wish to leave

Development: On June 17, the Brazilian daily Folha de São Paulo published a survey by Datafolha showing that 62% of young Brazilians, aged 16-24, would leave the country if they could.

Significance: The survey highlights how alienated and angry much of the Brazilian electorate feels as the 7 October general election looms closer. Years of economic recession, political turmoil, and revelations of staggering government corruption have worn down many Brazilians and led to a brain drain. Visas granted to Brazilians wishing to emigrate to the US doubled in 2017 in comparison with 2008, while requests for Portuguese citizenship have increased significantly in recent years, with 50,000 applications approved in São Paulo state alone since 2016.

  • Young people were the most eager to leave, according to the survey, but 50% of those aged 25 to 34 were also willing to go. Both push and pull factors are at work, according to Flavio Comim, an economics professor at the Universistat Ramón Llull university in Barcelona. Internet access makes it much easier to imagine and prepare for a life abroad, but frustrated expectations also play a part. “The Brazil of 2010 promised that the country would be different”, Comin told Folha. “The fall was all the greater when we realised things weren’t as good as they said”.
  • Worryingly, the desire to leave is strongest among the most highly-educated. A majority of those with tertiary education, and those in the highest socio-economic ‘A-B’ bracket, wanted to go. For academics, in particular, Brazil’s underfunded and uncompetitive university sector is a major factor in driving talent abroad to seek opportunities working in cutting-edge research.
  • More positively, however, Marcos Fernandes, from the Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV) business school, argues that it’s possible that many of those heading abroad will come back to Brazil eventually, benefiting the country in the medium-term.
  • The survey chimes with other signs of pessimism in Brazil. Another Datafolha survey carried out in June showed that 32% of respondents believe that the country’s economic situation will deteriorate further, while 46% believe there will be an increase in unemployment.

Looking Ahead: Such pessimism ahead of the general election could benefit the more radical candidates on offer. Brazilians are so fed up with the state of their country, they seem unlikely to choose anyone who represents continuity or the political establishment as usual.

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