Development: On 23 August, eleven European and Latin American jurists and lawyers sent a letter to Brazil’s President Michel Temer, asking that Brazil comply with the United Nations (UN) Human Rights Committee’s request that former president Lula da Silva (2003-2011) be allowed to exercise his political rights and stand in the 7 October presidential election.
Significance: The letter’s signatories express “serious doubts about the impartiality of the procedure leading to [Lula’s] conviction” and highlight Brazil’s duty, “as one of the great democratic nations of the world”, to comply with the interim measures issued by the UN Committee in Lula’s favour on 17 August. The Brazilian authorities have already dismissed the Committee’s requests as non-legally binding recommendations.
- The letter was also sent to Brazil’s justice minister, Torquato Jardim, foreign minister Aloysio Nunes, the president of the senate, and the eleven judges of the supreme court (STF), which include the current president of the electoral court (TSE), Rosa Weber. The decision over whether Lula is eligible to run for office ultimately lies with the TSE.
- Lula has been registered as a candidate by his leftist Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT), despite the fact that the former president is currently serving a twelve-year prison sentence for money laundering and corruption upheld on appeal. Lula is most likely ineligible under Brazil’s ‘clean slate’ law, which bars a convicted criminal from holding public office, but his supporters maintain that he is the victim of political persecution, a position which has been reinforced by the Committee’s recent declaration.
- The TSE has received a total of 16 formal challenges to Lula’s candidacy, including from Brazil’s attorney general, Raquel Dodge; from the public prosecutor’s electoral office (MPE); and from far-right presidential candidate, Jair Bolsonaro, who is second behind Lula in public opinion polls.
- Lula remains the favourite by a wide margin in the latest polls, garnering between 37% and 39% of voting intentions, despite being unable to campaign himself. He has been barred from taking part in the first two televised presidential debates, and from sending a representative in his place, and will not be allowed to record videos from prison to be aired when TV campaigning begins next week.
Looking Ahead: Lula’s lawyers now have seven days to respond to the points raised in the challenges presented to the TSE. The TSE then has until 17 September to decide whether Lula is eligible to run. The outcome of the 7 October first round of the presidential election remains highly uncertain in a scenario without Lula, especially as the start of TV and radio campaigning on 31 August is expected to cause a shift in voting intentions.
