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LatinNews Daily - 10 September 2018

Change of tone in Brazil’s presidential campaign

Development: On 9 September, candidates running in Brazil’s 7 October presidential election took part in a third televised debate, during which they defended the importance of a peaceful electoral process.

Significance: This debate was the first major electoral event to take place since presidential front-runner and extreme-right candidate, Jair Bolsonaro, of the Partido Social Liberal (PSL), was seriously injured in a knife attack during a campaign rally on 6 September. Although the attack is being treated as an isolated incident, and its perpetrator has been arrested, there is fear that it will lead to the radicalisation of what has already proven to be a divisive electoral process.

  • A number of Bolsonaro supporters, including Silas Malafeia, an influential evangelical pastor, have accused the leftist Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) of being behind the attack, even though the attacker has no known affiliation with the party and has declared he was acting by order of God.
  • At the other end of the political spectrum, people on the Left have suggested that Bolsonaro, known for his controversial comments and frequently accused of inciting violence, brought the attack upon himself. The former PT president Dilma Rousseff (2011-2016), who is running for senator in the state of Minas Gerais where Bolsonaro was attacked, caused some controversy by saying that “when you sow hatred, you harvest storms”, a sentiment echoed by other figures on the Left.
  • The candidates running for president have, however, been emphatic in their condemnation of the attack. Marina Silva, the candidate of the Rede Sustentabilidade (Rede) party, and Ciro Gomes the candidate of the left-wing Partido Democrático Trabalhista (PDT), who are joint second in the polls behind Bolsonaro and have not held back their criticism of him in the past, both appear to have adopted a more measured tone. There were fewer personal attacks between candidates in yesterday’s debate, and there was more focus on the discussion of policy proposals.
  • As well as Bolsonaro, the other notable absentee from the debate was the PT’s presidential candidate, the jailed former president Lula da Silva (2003-2011), who is currently barred from running. The PT is expected to announce a substitute presidential candidate today (10 September) or tomorrow, most likely to be Fernando Haddad, currently Lula’s running mate. 

Looking Ahead: Bolsonaro has confirmed that he will remain in the presidential race despite the attack, although his campaign will now centre more than ever on his social media channels. Analysts expect that the attack will boost Bolsonaro’s popularity. Polls conducted prior to the attack, but after Lula’s candidacy was banned, give Bolsonaro 22% of voting intentions, ten percentage points ahead of Silva and Gomes.   

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