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Weekly Report - 11 October 2018 (WR-18-40)

TRACKING TRENDS

ARGENTINA | Economic travails. The latest World Economic Outlook released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) makes for uncomfortable reading for the government led by President Mauricio Macri. The IMF forecast that Argentina’s economy will contract by 2.6% this year and 1.6% in 2019. The government’s own projections do not differ markedly for this year, when it is forecasting a contraction of 2.4%, but are very different for 2019. The government is forecasting that GDP will contract by just 0.5% in 2019 amid clear signs of economic recovery, and market confidence, provided it can deliver on the zero fiscal deficit envisaged in next year’s draft budget. This is a stiff challenge as attested by the IMF report which alluded to “persistent uncertainty over the success of the stabilization plan”.

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