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LatinNews Daily - 30 October 2018

Guyana’s Granger in health scare at critical moment for country

Development: It has been announced that Guyana’s President David Granger, 73, is to travel to Cuba today (30 October) for a medical “investigation” of an unrevealed nature.

Significance: Guyana is at a delicate stage of its development, having discovered large amounts of oil, the first of which is set to flow around about the time of the next general election in 2020, thus making the outcome of that election of more than usual significance for Guyana’s divided society.

  • President Granger, of the People’s National Congress Reform (PNCR), leads the largely African-Guyanese supported ‘A Partnership for National Unity/Alliance for Change’ (Apnu/AFC) coalition government, which ousted the largely Indian-Guyanese supported Progressive People’s Party/Civic (PPP/C) government in 2015 after 23 years in power.
  • The PNCR was itself in power for 28 years before the PPP/C won the 1992 election, reflecting the power of incumbency in Guyana where the relatively small number of floating voters tend to be persuaded which way to cast their votes by government largesse. After 2020, that ability of the government to influence swing voters with largesse will be even greater.
  • Granger will be out of the country until 11 November, which means he will miss the last lap of campaigning for the local elections on 12 November. These elections are seen as an important pointer towards 2020.
  • In recent months, Granger has imposed himself on oil-sector policy after a period of muddle, creating a Department of Energy in the president’s office under his appointee Mark Bynoe. Granger has made it clear to the oil companies that all key decisions emanate from the president.
  • The duties of president will for the time being be performed by Prime Minister Moses Nagamootoo; those of prime minister will devolve to Minister of Foreign Affairs Carl Greenidge.
  • Nagamootoo is himself still recovering from triple bypass surgery, although he is said to be feeling stronger these days. He is seen as a journeyman politician who may not hold the respect of his cabinet (to the PPP/C base he is a traitor who joined with Apnu/AFC to end 23 years of Indo-Guyanese rule).  
  • A recent report by Wood Mackenzie characterised the Guyana basin as “one of the world’s offshore exploration hotspots”. It says: “The project economics are world-class, with development returns above 30%...” And it adds: “With almost 20 targets left to chase, and an exploration success rate of 80% to date, the project will only get bigger”.

Looking Ahead: Granger is a mysterious, elusive, figure, and this remoteness has given him an authority above party politics. His absence could allow internal tensions within the ruling coalition to become inflamed to the benefit of the PPP/C.

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