US President Donald Trump issued a stark warning to Venezuela’s armed forces on 18 February, saying that they stood to “lose everything” if they continued to buttress the government led by Nicolás Maduro and refused to allow humanitarian aid amassing on the borders to enter the country.
Analysis:
It is not clear exactly how humanitarian aid will get into the country as planned on 23 February if the military and national guard deployed to the border with Colombia refuse to allow it across the Tienditas international bridge linking the country to the Colombian city of Cúcuta where it is being stockpiled. Trump’s tough rhetoric is the latest attempt to break the resolve of the Venezuelan military.
- During a speech in Miami, Florida, Trump said there would be “no safe harbour, no easy exit, and no way out” for members of the armed forces if they resisted on 23 February, and he urged them to accept the offer of an amnesty extended by the self-proclaimed interim president Juan Guaidó. “We seek a peaceful transition of power, but all options are open”, Trump said.
- This thinly veiled threat of military action has divided the US from other regional and international actors. On 18 February, the Spanish and French foreign ministers, Josep Borrell and Jean-Yves Le Drian respectively, condemned the Maduro administration’s decision to expel a delegation comprising six members of the European parliament (MEPs), but Borrell expressed concern at unconfirmed reports that the US military was being deployed along the Colombian border with Venezuela, arguing that “foreign military intervention” was not the solution and past precedent suggested that “the remedy would be worse than the disease”.
- Borrell expressed hope that a technical mission sent to Venezuela by the ‘international contact group’, set up by the European Union (EU), would be admitted to the country to try and negotiate the staging of an electoral process. He said that the EU favoured political pressure and dialogue “to compel change without a confrontation, which would be catastrophic”.
Looking Ahead: Maduro reacted defiantly to Trump’s warning. He denounced the attempt to force humanitarian aid into Venezuela as “a show” and “a trap”, while claiming that 300,000 tonnes of humanitarian assistance would arrive from Russia on 20 February.
