Mexico & Nafta - June 2019

First-quarter growth: On 30 April Mexico’s national statistics institute (Inegi) reported that the country’s GDP grew by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2019 compared with the same period in 2018. However, the Inegi figures show that, compared with the last quarter of 2018, seasonally adjusted GDP growth contracted by 0.2%. Following the release of the first-quarter growth figures the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) revised down their economic growth forecasts for Mexico this year to 1.6% down from 2% previously. Meanwhile Mexico’s central bank (Banxico) itself revised its GDP growth forecast for 2019 to a range of 0.8%-1.8%, less than the 1.1%-2.1% range previously forecast in December 2018. These new figures were released in Banxico’s quarterly report for January-March 2019 on 29 May. The Banxico report blamed the stagnant growth on the slowdown in the global economy and weak US industrial production. Still, Banxico maintained that growth in 2020 will be between 1.7% and 2.7%.

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