LatinNews Regional Monitor: Caribbean & Central America - 01 July 2019

* El Salvador’s central bank (BCR) has reduced its economic growth forecast for 2019 to 2.3%, down from 2.4% in March 2019. As grounds for its revision the BCR cited a reduction in the pace of economic growth, noting that in the first quarter of 2019 the Salvadorean economy grew by1.8% year-on-year. El Salvador grew 2.5% in 2018. As external risk factors that could affect growth the BCR cites: a further slowdown of global trade and the global economy; impacts in the region due to the trade war between the US and countries such as China, India, Mexico; geopolitical tensions; and tensions in Nicaragua and Honduras which could affect El Salvador’s trade. The BCR highlights internal risk factors including the lack of political consensus on economic issues, the costs and impact on the economy of insecurity and violence, and the country’s vulnerability to natural disasters and climate change.

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