On 16 October, new voting intention polls released pointed to a victory for Alberto Fernández, the presidential candidate of the hard-line Peronist Frente de Todos coalition, in Argentina’s 27 October general election.
Analysis:
With ten days to go until the election, the latest polls by Opina Argentina and the Universidad de San Andrés (Udesa) both show Fernández as the clear frontrunner ahead of President Mauricio Macri, who is seeking re-election for the centre-right Justos por el Cambio coalition. These echo the results of the 11 August party primaries (Paso) in which Fernández obtained almost half of all votes cast, taking 47% to 32% for Macri and suggest that Fernández could win outright in the first round, for which 45% of the vote or 40% with a 10-point lead over his nearest rival is necessary.
- The Opina Argentina poll, which had a +/- 3 percentage point error margin, showed Fernández on 52% of voting intentions to 32% for Macri. Meanwhile the Udesa survey, which had a +/- 3.15 percentage point error margin, showed Fernández on 38% of voting intentions to 30% for Macri. However, the Udesa poll predicts these figures to be 51% and 34% once undecided voters are eliminated and ‘hidden’ votes are incorporated.
- The Udesa survey also showed that economic concerns remain the main voter gripes – a major reason for the fall in support for Macri. Respondents cited as the main problems facing the country, inflation (44%), unemployment (40%), and poverty (33%) while 67% of those questioned thought the country’s situation was worse now than when Macri took office in 2015.
- Macri now faces the near-impossible challenge of attempting to close the gap between himself and Fernández. He has intensified his electoral campaigning to try to increase support and recently announced via Twitter new campaign promises including extending parental leave for birth and adoptions and creating early childhood programmes.
- Fernández, who announced via social media that a Frente de Todos rally would take place today (17 October) in Santa Rosa, La Pampa province, to coincide with the commemorative day of Peronism, Día de la Lealtad, appears to be maintaining a lower profile. Instead he is focusing on portraying a united front with his running mate, former president Cristina Fernández (2007-2015).
Looking Ahead: The increasing likelihood of a win for the Fernández ticket has provoked market speculation over Argentina’s already-unstable financial situation. JP Morgan now estimates the country’s risk index has risen by 4.2% to 2,113 basis points as international market concern grows over Argentina defaulting on its debt under a prospective Fernández government.
