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LatinNews Regional Monitor: Brazil & Southern Cone - 29 October 2019

BRAZIL: Fresh doubts over future relations with Argentina

On 28 October, Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro said that Argentina had made the “wrong choice” in its 27 October presidential election and that he would not congratulate the country’s new president-elect, the Peronist Alberto Fernández.

Analysis:

Bolsonaro’s reaction to Fernández’s victory, which was echoed by his Foreign Minister Ernesto Araújo, has raised fresh doubts as to the future of Brazil and Argentina’s relationship. Bolsonaro had recently toned down some of his criticisms, suggesting that pragmatism might prevail over political partisanship. But these latest comments show Bolsonaro continuing to paint the political Left and all associated with it as his enemy, a discourse which engages his domestic supporters at the risk of jeopardising a working relationship with his future Argentine counterpart.  

  • If Bolsonaro’s reaction has been branded unwise, it is Araújo’s that has generated the most criticism, for taking a swipe at Argentina’s well-functioning democracy. “The forces of evil are celebrating. The forces of democracy are lamenting themselves for Argentina”, the foreign minister tweeted.  
  • Bolsonaro did say that he would wait to see what line Fernández adopts after taking over the presidency, but he again raised the possibility of joining forces with right-leaning Paraguay (and possibly Uruguay, depending on the outcome of its presidential run-off in November) to suspend Argentina from the Southern Common Market (Mercosur) trade bloc if it is not aligned with Brazil’s ambitions for trade opening. 
  • Relations between Bolsonaro and Fernández are likely to be strained even if pragmatism does prevail. Over the past few days, Fernández has several times defended ‘Lula Livre’, the movement calling for Brazil’s former president Lula da Silva (2003-2011) to be released from prison - a move which no doubt appeared provocative to Bolsonaro who sees Lula as his political nemesis.
  • Worried observers note that Argentina is Brazil’s largest trade partner in the region, and third largest export destination after China and the US, and that neither can afford a breakdown in bilateral relations. Tensions between the two countries would also have wider repercussions, notably for Mercosur. 

Looking Ahead: Bolsonaro’s attitude towards a Peronist government in Argentina is likely to become another issue that causes friction within his administration, between his ideological followers such as Araújo and those who advocate pragmatism, such as the military faction.

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