The extent of the damage has not yet been fully established. Military officials have attributed four deaths between 14 and 17 February to the ELN - a soldier shot while on sentry duty in the violence-ridden region of Catatumbo in the department of Norte de Santander bordering Venezuela, and three indigenous community defenders in Cauca department.
Seven more deaths in a vehicle explosion, also in Cauca, are being investigated, but initial suggestions that this was a car bomb seem to have been dismissed by the military. General Luis Fernando Navarro, commander of Colombia’s armed forces, reported that 94 of the 117 attacks recorded during the armed strike were foiled, with 29 assailants arrested.
An ELN statement nonetheless celebrated the “total success” of the armed strike; the violent attacks were merely secondary effects of a campaign that sought primarily to disrupt and intimidate Colombia. The economic effects of any infrastructural disruption were relatively limited, and few substantial advances were made in the ELN’s long-running campaigns against rival illegal armed groups, most notably Los Pelusos, formerly the Ejército Popular de Liberación (EPL) guerrilla group, in Catatumbo.
The real impact of this armed strike is perhaps best measured through its psychological impact on the Colombian authorities and population. The intensification of security protocols across the country, and the emptiness of Colombia’s roads and transport systems, suggest that it hit its mark in this regard.
The impact on President Duque is less clear. If the ELN had hoped to goad him into further promises to restore security to Colombia, it was unsuccessful. Duque was uncharacteristically quiet in regard to the ELN threat, allowing his defence minister, Carlos Holmes Trujillo, to prepare the security response last week, and leaving military officials to report on its aftermath.
On 16 February, Duque instead took a “spiritual retreat” to the presidential Hato Grande residence in Cundinamarca department. Duque led a two-day government review workshop, to discuss the achievements of his administration so far, and plan his next steps.
Colombia’s newly appointed interior minister, Alicia Arango, has been thrown in at the deep end, tasked immediately with helping to resolve Colombia’s security crisis. However, she will also play an important role in shaping President Duque’s legislative agenda once congress reconvenes in March. As labour minister, Arango had been deeply involved in the controversial pension reform proposals that played a part in sparking widespread protests in 2019, and she revealed in January that amended versions of these proposals will be among the top priorities for Duque’s government in 2020.
The ELN had appealed repeatedly for a resumption of dialogue with the government after Duque terminated talks in January 2019. Duque, finding himself in a position of strength, steadfastly refused to negotiate until the guerrilla force had fully demobilised and released all its political prisoners. But with the Duque administration coming under increasing pressure, the ELN identified this as an opportunity for a nationwide show of force, demonstrating its increased organisational capacities, and prompting a full-scale military response.
The extent of ELN activities was not vastly increased from its everyday confrontations with rival groups, a situation that has become relatively normalised in Colombia. Far more notable were its apparent attempts to draw attention to these actions, seemingly counter-productive for an organisation that now exists primarily to profit from various illegal activities, including drug trafficking.
This armed strike was a challenge to the authority of Duque and of his armed forces, to call his bluff over the repeated threat of renewed conflict. With dialogue unpalatable to Duque, he will have to choose between allowing this security threat to persist, or intensifying military action against the ELN – and neither solution is likely to be well-received by the Colombian public.End of preview - This article contains approximately 682 words.
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