LatinNews Regional Monitor: Brazil & Southern Cone - 21 February 2020

These latest ministerial musical chairs follow a number of changes in both the upper and lower echelons of government, as President Bolsonaro appears to be bowing to pressure from different groups around him and attempting to react to dissatisfaction with the government’s performance in certain areas, not least relating to the social agenda. On 6 February, Bolsonaro replaced the minister for regional development, Gustavo Canuto, with Rogério Marinho, seemingly under pressure from congress. Previously pensions & labour secretary in the economy ministry, Marinho’s constructive negotiations with congress last year are considered to have contributed to the success of a pension reform, whereas Canuto reportedly had difficult relations with lawmakers.  

The appointment of Braga Netto, who was until now the army’s second-in-command, clearly consolidates the influence of the military in government. It was confirmed by Bolsonaro on 13 February, the same day that Admiral Flávio Augusto Viana Rocha was appointed to lead the beefed up Secretaria Especial de Assuntos Estratégicos (SAE). This is directly linked to the presidential office and Rocha will have the job of advising Bolsonaro on, inter alia, international affairs and diplomatic matters. 

All government bodies with ministerial status linked to the Planalto presidential office are now led by military generals, bar one. Braga Netto heads the Casa Civil as chief-of-staff; Luiz Eduardo Ramos, who leads the secretary of government (Segov), is an active army general like Braga Netto (they are on temporary leave from the army to be able to serve in government); and the head of the institutional security cabinet (GSI), Augusto Heleno Ribeiro Pereira, is a retired four-star general. Only Jorge Oliveira, who heads the secretary-general to the presidency, has not directly passed through the armed forces, but he is a retired military police (PM) major. Overall, eight of Bolsonaro’s 22 cabinet ministers are now current or former members of the armed forces.

The military wing, one of the three principal groups which vie for influence in Bolsonaro’s government, was considered to have lost some of its sway to the nucleus of ideologues last year, but it now seems to be regaining the president’s ear. Bolsonaro’s high-ranking military allies are often considered to be the more pragmatic and politically competent individuals in the current government, and this consolidation of their influence has been received in different ways. Some fear it harks back to the military dictatorship (1964-1985), when the country was run by generals. Others hope they will, on the contrary, protect Brazil’s democratic institutions from the excesses of the hard-line ideologues.

This cabinet reshuffle and other changes feed the government rumour mill, while distracting from the fact that the Bolsonaro administration is yet to move forward on its promised priorities this legislative year. Economy Minister Paulo Guedes, who has himself batted away speculation that he might resign following a series of clumsy comments, has been promising to reveal the details of a planned public administration reform for weeks now. Bolsonaro reiterated on 17 February that this administrative reform would be presented to congress this week.

Governors vs. Bolsonaro

Governors from 20 of Brazil’s 27 states (including the federal district) addressed a letter to President Bolsonaro on 17 February criticising recent comments he made and inviting him to attend the next national forum of governors, due to take place on 14 April. “Recent declarations by the president of the Republic Jair Bolsonaro confronting governors…do not contribute to the evolution of democracy in Brazil,” the letter reads. In particular, governors bristled at Bolsonaro’s recent suggestion that the ICMS tax on goods and services, which is levied by the states, should be removed, whereas the federal government has still not presented its proposed tax reform. 

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