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LatinNews Daily - 02 March 2020

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VENEZUELA: Armed attack on opposition protest

On 29 February, at least six people were injured in the city of Barquisimeto, Lara state, during an armed attack on a demonstration led by opposition leader Juan Guaidó, recognised as Venezuela’s interim president by over 50 countries.

Analysis:

The attack received widespread condemnation from the international community, after opposition officials attributed it to ‘colectivos’ (armed militias supportive of Nicolás Maduro’s government) seeking to assassinate Guaidó. If Maduro wanted Guaidó dead, he undoubtedly has the military capacity to do so, but the extent of the reaction to this incident demonstrates why he is wary of making a martyr of the opposition leader. Regardless of whether the Maduro government was directly responsible for this attack, its rhetoric against Guaidó and the opposition has contributed to this violent political climate, the principal victims of which are not heavily guarded opposition politicians, but civilian protesters.

  • A group of masked men opened fire on the demonstration, injuring at least six people and leaving bullet marks on Guaidó’s armoured vehicle. Guaidó condemned this as an assassination attempt, and identified several of the attackers as being associated with local pro-government political groups.
  • The international reaction was immediate. Statements from the Lima Group of Western Hemisphere countries and the Organization of American States (OAS), as well as a range of national governments, condemned Maduro for fuelling this violence and for undermining a democratic solution to the crisis in Venezuela, although most have so far stopped short of accusing the Maduro government of directly orchestrating the attack.
  • The Maduro government has offered little reaction to this development. Guaidó’s international prestige has so far been sufficient to exempt him from the violence faced by the rest of the Venezuelan opposition, and Maduro is well aware that assassinating the opposition’s emblematic figurehead would be a strategic disaster. However, this broader climate of violence has likely contributed to the declining attendance at opposition demonstrations, as the dangers of protesting alongside Guaidó are made abundantly clear.

Looking Ahead: A major demonstration is planned in Caracas for 10 March, and Guaidó has called for the public to respond to this attack by rallying around him, despite the likelihood of further violence.

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