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LatinNews Daily - 02 March 2020

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URUGUAY: Lacalle Pou dons presidential sash

On 1 March Luis Alberto Lacalle Pou was sworn-in as president of Uruguay.

Analysis:

Lacalle Pou’s investiture breaks the 15-year stranglehold on power enjoyed by the left-wing Frente Amplio (FA) coalition. But while the three FA administrations held majorities in both chambers of congress (internal disputes between the FA’s different factions were mostly set aside when it mattered), Lacalle Pou faces a different scenario entirely. Lacalle Pou is entirely reliant upon a disparate five-party governing coalition, ranging from the centre-left to the radical right, hanging together.

  • During his 30-minute address to congress yesterday, Lacalle Pou focused on security, education, and the economy. He also underscored his commitment to preserving “the rights of everyone”, maintaining that if, when he leaves power, Uruguayans enjoy more freedoms than now then he would have done his job well.
  • Lacalle Pou promised that his government would take urgent measures to address insecurity, which was one of the deciding factors in the FA’s electoral defeat last November, and “recover control of every corner of our country, including our prisons”. He said that his government would introduce tougher security measures to combat rising crime and drug trafficking, such as more police powers and longer prison sentences.
  • Lacalle Pou said his government would overhaul the education system. He bewailed the decline of teaching standards in Uruguay, claiming the country had fallen from “the vanguard in Latin America to among the laggards in the percentage of children finishing secondary education”.
  • On the economic front, Lacalle Pou announced that his government would introduce austerity policies and stringent fiscal rules, expressing concern that the fiscal deficit in 2019 had climbed to 4.7% of GDP. He also said it would move to open a debate on an urgent reform of the social security system and pensions. Lacalle Pou said he would be prepared to work with all political parties and civil society to make it a “sustainable system”.
  • This is a vexed issue. It is worth recalling that the outgoing FA administration’s decision to reform the Caja Militar military pension system so incensed then army commander Guido Manini Ríos that, after a few twists and turns, he ended up running for the presidency at the head of the fledgling right-wing Cabildo Abierto (CA) party, which now forms an integral part of Lacalle Pou’s ‘multi-colour’ coalition.
  • Lacalle Pou’s centre-right Partido Nacional (PN, Blancos) can be reasonably certain of preserving a governing alliance with its traditional rival, the Partido Colorado (PC, Colorados), and could afford to lose the support of the small Partido Independiente (PI) and Partido de la Gente (PG), but the CA is an unknown quantity and an essential partner.

Looking Ahead: Manini Ríos might be a political liability, but Lacalle Pou will need to humour him. Without the CA’s three senators and 11 deputies, Lacalle Pou will be unable to muster a majority in either chamber of congress to win approval for his legislative agenda, his government will be ineffective, and the FA will be back in power in 2025.

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