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Jonathan Menkos, the director of the Guatemala-based think-tank Central American institute of fiscal studies (Icefi), has warned that Guatemala could suffer a 20% fall in remittances in 2020 compared with 2019, due to the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic. According to Guatemala’s central bank (Banguat), remittances totalled US$10.5bn in 2019. The most recent World Bank figures show that remittances accounted for 12% of Guatemala’s GDP in 2018. Menkos also suggested that the Guatemala's GDP could contract by between 0.9% and 1.2% in 2020 due to fall in “
remittances, exporting prospects, tourism and a decrease of productive national activity”. At the start of the year Banguat forecast GDP growth of between 3.1% and 4.1%, compared to 3.5% in 2019.
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