On 17 September Mexico’s President Andrés Manuel López Obrador dismissed the possibility that the US could impose economic sanctions on Mexico for not doing enough to combat drug trafficking.
Analysis:
López Obrador’s remarks came in response to the publication of the annual Presidential Determination on Major Drug Transit or Major Illicit Drug Producing Countries for Fiscal Year 2021 memorandum in which US President Donald Trump warns that Mexico risks being sanctioned if it fails to take more steps to address the trafficking of illicit drugs into the US. López Obrador has sought to dismiss this as electorally motivated bluff that carries no real threat. The concern is that López Obrador may be misreading Trump’s message which could end up harming bilateral relations.
- López Obrador was asked about Trump’s memo during his daily press briefing yesterday. “We have nothing to fear, besides, we need to be careful because there are elections in the US… so it is better to wait… it does not merit any harsh or energic response”. López Obrador said, alluding to the November US presidential election in which Trump is seeking re-election.
- López Obrador did admit that Trump’s memo contains some claims “that we don’t accept”. But said that it is only “a point of view, an opinion that we respect…we won’t start a confrontation”. Adding that relations with the US remain positive, López Obrador argued that there is no real risk that the US would impose economic sanctions or withdraw the financial assistance it provides Mexico to combat organised crime; and said that he would recommend the foreign ministry to issue a “soft” response with “love and peace”.
Looking Ahead: While Trump appears to have ramped up his anti-Mexico rhetoric of late to appeal to his electoral support base, security analysts note that the continued flow of large amounts of illegal drugs from Mexico to the US is a real bipartisan concern in Washington. Analysts warn that the threat of action against Mexico if there is no improvement in this situation should not be underestimated.
