On 1 June, thousands of Peruvians marched in opposition to Keiko Fujimori, the right-wing Fuerza Popular candidate, who will face off against Pedro Castillo of the far-left Perú Libre party in the presidential election run-off vote on 6 June.
Analysis:
With many supporters of Castillo and Fujimori entrenched in vehement opposition to the opposing candidate, there is a serious risk of post-election instability. Peru is facing an election between two candidates who portray their rivals as authoritarians in the making, and the consistently vicious rhetoric from both campaigns is creating deep divisions in Peruvian society that will not be easily bridged after the election.
- A large demonstration was held in the capital, Lima, where protesters expressed fears that a Keiko Fujimori victory would continue the legacy of her father, the authoritarian former president Alberto Fujimori (1990-2000). Alberto is currently serving a 25-year prison sentence for his role in the formation of an anti-communist death squad, and yesterday’s march was attended by relatives of civilians murdered by this unit.
- There is mounting concern that the intense polarisation could lead to post-election unrest. Yesterday, the former director of the national electoral office (Onpe), Fernando Tuesta Soldevilla (2000-2004), condemned recent claims by both campaigns that they could only lose through fraud. Emphasising that Peru’s electoral process is secure and would be monitored by international observers, Tuesta expressed fears that the loser will not accept defeat, which “could lead to uncontrollable levels of instability”. He also warned that the divisive rhetoric from both candidates makes it unlikely that the winner would seek to unify the country after the election.
- Castillo and Fujimori held their final televised debate on 30 May, which, as with previous debates, featured more personal attacks than policy proposals. Castillo continued to emphasise his humble origins, hoping to sustain his connection with Peru’s poor, and repeatedly attacked Fujimori for the corruption allegations against her. Meanwhile, Fujimori sought to associate Castillo's “communist” rhetoric with violence against her campaign staff, brandishing a rock that she said had been thrown at her entourage.
Looking Ahead: The most recent voting intention polls indicate that the election could go either way. A survey published by Ipsos on 30 May gave Castillo 45.1% of the predicted vote compared to Fujimori’s 43.1% - a technical draw, with Castillo’s lead falling within the +/-2.52 percentage point margin of error.