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LatinNews Daily - 11 November 2021

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Main Briefing

On 10 November the anti-government protests that began in Bolivia on 8 November intensified, with President Luis Arce cancelling a trip to Potosí department due to the unrest.

Analysis:

The protests are the most severe unrest in Bolivia since the arrest of former president Jeanine Áñez (2019-2020) in March, and are showing no sign of abating. The driving force behind the demonstrations is ostensibly a financial crimes law that the opposition claims could pave the way to a judicial crackdown on the government’s opponents. However, many believe that the law is serving as a pretext to draw large numbers of protesters onto the streets, with the ultimate aim of forcing Arce from office.

  • The unrest began on 8 November to coincide with Arce’s first anniversary as president, when the right-wing civil society grouping Comité pro Santa Cruz (CPSC) called an indefinite strike to demand the repeal of a financial crimes law (Law 1386). Major protests were staged over the following two days, and intensified significantly yesterday. Hundreds of demonstrators have been arrested over the last three days.
  • Protests are taking place across the country, with the largest taking place in the departments of Santa Cruz, Potosí, La Paz, Cochabamba, and Tarija. Yesterday, Bolivia’s human rights ombudsman, Nadia Cruz, announced that a 22-year-old man had died in Potosí, with the local opposition civil society organisation Comité Cívico Potosinato (Comcipo) stating that he suffocated during clashes between demonstrators and supporters of the ruling Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) who were trying to clear a roadblock.
  • President Arce cancelled a planned visit to Potosí yesterday, after Comcipo declared him “persona non-grata” in the city and warned that the protests and strikes would continue until Law 1386 is repealed. Arce’s spokesman, Jorge Richter, explained that the decision was taken to avoid “giving [protesters] another excuse to mobilise or violently protest.”
  • In the capital, La Paz, thousands attended marches both against and in support of the government. This was the first major protest in La Paz since the unrest began, although clashes of the sort seen in Potosí were avoided when the opposition made a last-minute change to its planned march to avoid counterprotests by MAS supporters.
  • Arce yesterday accused the opposition of using Law 1386 as a “pretext” to “trick” the public into supporting “impunity for… the coup d’état” that MAS claims was orchestrated against former president Evo Morales (2006-2019) by Áñez. Arce said that if Law 1386 were repealed the opposition would merely find another pretext for further protests, and that “what worries them is that the trials are advancing” against Áñez and other members of her administration.
  • Two Bolivian press associations have raised concern about assaults and intimidation targeting journalists covering the unrest. The national press association (ANP) and Bolivia’s national association of journalists (ANPB) have accused the police of deliberately firing tear gas cannisters and rubber bullets at reporters in Santa Cruz and Potosí, claimed that journalists were denied access to protest sites by the authorities and protesters, and said that striking transport workers in Cochabamba forced a reporter to delete photographs of the unrest.

Looking Ahead: There is currently little sign of the unrest abating, and even a repeal of Law 1386 would be unlikely to calm the waters in the long-term. Many analysts support Arce’s view that the questioned law is serving as a useful pretext for protests, and that the ultimate objective is to remove him from office. If anything, repealing the law could give momentum to the protesters and inspire further mass demonstrations.

Andean

* Peru has successfully issued €1bn (US$1.15bn) of “social bonds”, according to a statement by the economy and finance ministry (MEF). These will mature in 2036, with a coupon rate of 1.95%, and are Peru’s first ever social bonds. The MEF added that the funds raised from the bond auction will go towards social spending on supporting vulnerable groups; improving access to adequate housing, education, and essential health services; and supporting small-, micro-, and medium-sized businesses in order to reduce unemployment.

Brazil

On 10 November Brazil’s Sergio Moro, the former judge who presided over the ‘Lava Jato’ corruption cases and a former justice minister (2019-2020) in President Jair Bolsonaro’s government, formally entered politics by affiliating himself to the right-wing Podemos (PODE) party. 

Analysis:

Moro, who rose to fame for his work on the Lava Jato cases, receded from the public eye after his acrimonious departure from Bolsonaro’s government in April 2020. A divisive figure and reviled by the Left due to his role in sentencing former president Lula da Silva (2003-2011) to prison, Moro has lost some of his shine amid signs that he acted with political bias. But with a general election due in October 2022, the former judge is positioning himself as a potential presidential pre-candidate for the so-called ‘third way’, the sought-for alternative to both Bolsonaro and Lula. 

  • Moro sealed his affiliation to PODE during an event in Brasília yesterday. Those present welcomed him as a presidential candidate, and Moro delivered a long speech in which he implied that he could join the presidential contest next year. In the past, and notably when he left the judicial profession to join Bolsonaro’s government, Moro had always denied having political ambitions. 
  • Moro is one of many names that are being thrown around as a possible ‘third way’ candidate. A poll by the Quaest consultancy firm, carried out between 3-6 November, puts Moro in third place with 8% of voting intention in two possible first-round scenarios, ahead of other presumptive ‘third way’ contenders, such as Ciro Gomes, a leftist from the Partido Democrático Trabalhista (PDT), or João Doria, the current governor of São Paulo state who will be disputing the nomination for the centre-right Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira (PSDB) later this month. Lula leads the Quaest polls with 47% or 48% of voting intentions, to 21% for Bolsonaro.  

Looking Ahead: Moro benefits from name recognition at national level, which will help him in the earlier polls. But, at this stage, few believe that the former judge stands much of a chance: he lacks political experience or stature, faces strong rejection levels, and his focus on anti-corruption will not resonate with much of the electorate, which is reeling from the economic effects of the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic.

* Brazil’s national statistics institute (Ibge) has released the latest figures for the consumer price index (IPCA), which show that inflation grew 1.25% in October, the highest figure for the month since 2002. This brings inflation in the 12 months to October to 10.67%, above the 10.25% annual inflation rate recorded in September. Inflation in the transport category (2.62%), largely due to rising fuel prices, had the biggest impact on overall inflation in October, followed by rising prices in the food & drink category (1.17%).

Central America & Caribbean

On 10 November the US embassy in Haiti’s Port-au-Prince posted an alert urging US citizens to “make plans to depart Haiti now via commercial means”.

Analysis:

The alert cites “the current security situation and infrastructure challenges” – a reference to the security crisis, which has intensified since the July assassination of President Jovenel Moïse (2017-2021) and recently made headlines following the mass kidnapping of 17 North American missionaries (who have yet to be released) as well as gangs’ blockading of fuel supplies which began last month over demands for Prime Minister Ariel Henry to resign, causing massive shortages.

  • Yesterday humanitarian NGO Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) issued a statement in response to the fuel blockades warning that “nearly all public and private health facilities in Port-au-Prince have stopped or limited admissions to only acute cases, or closed their doors due to similar problems”. It adds that further closures are possible, “with some hospitals expected to run out of fuel for generators in two and a half weeks”.
  • The lack of fuel is affecting other essential goods and services, with potable water supplies reportedly in jeopardy. On 7 November Haiti's national water agency Dinepa announced that it lacks fuel to continue pumping drinking water to numerous areas of the capital.
  • On 9 November Frantz Elbé, the director of the national police (PNd’H), said that measures taken so far to allow for the safe distribution of fuel had failed to produce results. He said that while a security corridor had been set up from the Varreux port terminal in Port-au-Prince and goods such as rice, cooking oil and cement were getting through, gangs were blocking tanker lorries carrying fuel.

Looking Ahead: Despite appeals from the likes of Dominican President Luis Abinader for the international community to intervene, the US continues to rule this out. During a two-day visit to Haiti this week, Todd Robinson, US assistant secretary for the Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs, was cited by the media as acknowledging the gravity of the threat posed by gangs but said that “at the end of the day, it’s not going to be the international community that comes to Haiti’s rescue. It’s going to be Haitians.”

* Costa Rica’s tourism institute (ICT), a government body, has released new figures which show that tourist arrivals to the country via air in October 2021 totalled 91,292 - 67% of the amount received in October 2019 before the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic struck. The same figures show that in the first ten months of 2021, tourist arrivals via air totalled 927,482 of which most (647,765) were from the US, followed by Spain (31,444); Mexico (27,917); France (29,290); and Switzerland (14,092). In the first ten months of 2021, Costa Rica received 978,676 tourists in total. While these figures are still below pre-pandemic levels, ICT remained optimistic of further recovery due to the fact that the high tourism season is traditionally in November and December.

Mexico

On 10 November Mexico’s President Andrés Manuel López Obrador defended his choice of Pablo Gómez Álvarez as the new head of the government’s financial intelligence unit (UIF).

Analysis:

A federal deputy for the ruling left-wing Movimiento Regeneración Nacional (Morena), Gómez was appointed earlier this week to replace Santiago Nieto, who was forced to resign following fierce criticism over an extravagant wedding which took place in Guatemala. His appointment has been rejected by some opposition figures who complain that he lacks the technical profile for the role and could use the post to attack opponents. These concerns come as the government continues to face complaints of politicising justice.

  • In his morning press conference López Obrador said that Gómez “had integrity, was honest and incorruptible”. 
  • An economist and professor at the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (Unam), Gómez is a seasoned politician; a member of the 1968 student movement, he briefly served as president (1999) of the centre-left Partido de la Revolución Democrática (PRD), Lopez Obrador’s former party, as well as a PRD legislator.
  • Lopez Obrador was defending him in response to complaints from figures such as Jorge Triana, deputy coordinator of the right-wing opposition Partido Acción Nacional (PAN) in the chamber of deputies, who told national daily Reforma that Gómez has been “vengeful” in his previous posts and lacks the technical profile to head up the UIF. 
  • The government is facing renewed pressure over claims of selective justice. Jailed former social development minister Rosario Robles (2015-2018) repeated these complaints in an interview with Mexico City radio station, Imagen Radio, broadcast yesterday. The first former government minister to be arrested over corruption charges under the López Obrador administration in 2019, Robles has repeatedly complained that she is the victim of a political vendetta. She cites the differential treatment that her case received compared with that of figures like Emilio Lozoya, the former CEO of the state-owned oil firm (Pemex), who was only placed under preventative detention last week, having previously been allowed to face trial without detention.

Looking Ahead: Some are hopeful that Gomez’s appointment could prove beneficial in terms of a better working relationship with federal attorney general Alejandro Gertz who reportedly had frosty relations with Nieto at times, for example over complaints that the former UIF had failed to provide sufficient evidence in relation to particular cases.

* Mexico’s chamber of deputies has approved in general terms the federal budget for 2022, with 274 votes in favour, 219 against, and three abstentions. The budget proposes M$7.08trn (US$345bn) in spending, an 8.6% increase on the budget approved for 2021. The so-called ‘programmable expenditure’ (relating to healthcare, public security, and investment) totals M$5.24trn relates to so-called programmable spending (encompassing healthcare, public security, and investment), representing a 9.6% increase compared to the 2021 budget, in real terms. The remaining M$1.84trn relates to ‘non-programmable expenses’ spending, relating to the fulfilment of the government’s legal obligations. A total of 1,994 reservations were lodged regarding the budget, and the chamber of deputies will begin voting on these particulars today (11 November).

Southern Cone

In his first comments after the chamber of deputies voted to impeach him, Chile’s President Sebastián Piñera said on 10 November that the case against him was based on “false facts” and would be thrown out by the senate.

Analysis:

President Piñera said the accusations against him, based on the leaked ‘Pandora Papers’ and purporting to show he had a conflict of interests in the sale of family-held shares in a mining company to a close friend, had “no basis, neither in fact nor in law”. Piñera was also highly critical of the 22-hour debate on the impeachment vote in the chamber of deputies, which include an extended filibuster to allow a key deputy to emerge from obligatory coronavirus (Covid-19) isolation and cast the determining in-person vote in favour of impeachment.  

  • The senate is expected to begin the impeachment debate on 16 November, only five days before the general election, which is due on 21 November. Since the opposition parties lack the necessary two-thirds majority, it is expected that impeachment will eventually fail in the upper chamber
  • Even if ultimately unsuccessful, impeachment may affect the presidential race. Far-right candidate José Antonio Kast, who is currently leading in the opinion polls, described the lower chamber vote as a “circus” while left-winger Gabriel Boric, welcomed it as “good”.
  • Marco Moreno at Universidad Central said it allowed centre-left opposition parties to send out “a powerful signal of unity” which might be of key importance in a likely second-round run-off ballot in December (potentially Kast vs Boric), as well helping it build a working majority in the next elected congress. 
  • Miguel Angel Fernández, political scientist at Universidad del Desarrollo, said there has been a close link between the Piñera government’s approval rating and support for Sebastián Sichel, the right-wing presidential candidate supported by the ruling coalition. He concluded that the impeachment process is likely to have a negative impact on Sichel’s polling numbers, which have already weakened by a recent surge in support for Kast.

Looking Ahead: The latest batch of opinion polls show Kast consolidating his first-round lead. A poll by Activa published on 6 November showed Kast with 22% support, followed by 18% for Boric, 11% for Democracia Cristiana’s Yasna Provoste, and 8% for Sebastián Sichel.

* Argentina’s secretary for domestic trade, Roberto Feletti, has said that the rise in ‘blue dollar’ – the local black market exchange rate for US dollars – would not impact on food or medicines prices. Last month the government imposed a 90-day price freeze on 1,432 products, including food, drink, and other key components of popular consumption. His comments follow reports that the ‘blue dollar’ was selling at an all-time high of Ar$205. This comes just days ahead of the 14 November legislative elections in which the government led by President Alberto Fernández is widely expected to lose seats.

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