On 10 November the anti-government protests that began in Bolivia on 8 November intensified, with President Luis Arce cancelling a trip to Potosí department due to the unrest.
Analysis:
The protests are the most severe unrest in Bolivia since the arrest of former president Jeanine Áñez (2019-2020) in March, and are showing no sign of abating. The driving force behind the demonstrations is ostensibly a financial crimes law that the opposition claims could pave the way to a judicial crackdown on the government’s opponents. However, many believe that the law is serving as a pretext to draw large numbers of protesters onto the streets, with the ultimate aim of forcing Arce from office.
- The unrest began on 8 November to coincide with Arce’s first anniversary as president, when the right-wing civil society grouping Comité pro Santa Cruz (CPSC) called an indefinite strike to demand the repeal of a financial crimes law (Law 1386). Major protests were staged over the following two days, and intensified significantly yesterday. Hundreds of demonstrators have been arrested over the last three days.
- Protests are taking place across the country, with the largest taking place in the departments of Santa Cruz, Potosí, La Paz, Cochabamba, and Tarija. Yesterday, Bolivia’s human rights ombudsman, Nadia Cruz, announced that a 22-year-old man had died in Potosí, with the local opposition civil society organisation Comité Cívico Potosinato (Comcipo) stating that he suffocated during clashes between demonstrators and supporters of the ruling Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) who were trying to clear a roadblock.
- President Arce cancelled a planned visit to Potosí yesterday, after Comcipo declared him “persona non-grata” in the city and warned that the protests and strikes would continue until Law 1386 is repealed. Arce’s spokesman, Jorge Richter, explained that the decision was taken to avoid “giving [protesters] another excuse to mobilise or violently protest.”
- In the capital, La Paz, thousands attended marches both against and in support of the government. This was the first major protest in La Paz since the unrest began, although clashes of the sort seen in Potosí were avoided when the opposition made a last-minute change to its planned march to avoid counterprotests by MAS supporters.
- Arce yesterday accused the opposition of using Law 1386 as a “pretext” to “trick” the public into supporting “impunity for… the coup d’état” that MAS claims was orchestrated against former president Evo Morales (2006-2019) by Áñez. Arce said that if Law 1386 were repealed the opposition would merely find another pretext for further protests, and that “what worries them is that the trials are advancing” against Áñez and other members of her administration.
- Two Bolivian press associations have raised concern about assaults and intimidation targeting journalists covering the unrest. The national press association (ANP) and Bolivia’s national association of journalists (ANPB) have accused the police of deliberately firing tear gas cannisters and rubber bullets at reporters in Santa Cruz and Potosí, claimed that journalists were denied access to protest sites by the authorities and protesters, and said that striking transport workers in Cochabamba forced a reporter to delete photographs of the unrest.
Looking Ahead: There is currently little sign of the unrest abating, and even a repeal of Law 1386 would be unlikely to calm the waters in the long-term. Many analysts support Arce’s view that the questioned law is serving as a useful pretext for protests, and that the ultimate objective is to remove him from office. If anything, repealing the law could give momentum to the protesters and inspire further mass demonstrations.