In the run-up to the 21 November regional elections, in which 21m eligible Venezuelan voters are set to elect roughly 3,000 officials including councillors, mayors, and 23 state governors, President Nicolás Maduro’s government has allowed the opposition a greater degree of political freedom than usual. But it may be playing an apathy card.
The elections promise to be unusual. For the first time in four years, the opposition parties agreed to participate, despite continuing fears of electoral fraud. Around 300 election observers, mainly from the European Union (EU), have been deployed. While the ruling Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela (PSUV) continues to dominate the judiciary, the media, and the electoral council (CNE), using the resources of the state to gain votes (for example by distributing subsidised meals to supporters), there has been little sign of its other favoured instrument of control: political repression. Opposition candidates have been able to hold public meetings in relative freedom.
Referring to the gangs of motorcycle-riding armed government supporters that have attacked members of the opposition in previous elections, former CNE head Andrés Caleca, asked “Where are the colectivos? Hidden. Hidden because there is an international observation mission”. The government does seem to be calculating that at least three factors will work in its favour: first, the opposition’s chronic inability to unite; second, a very small economic recovery as oil prices rise and the economy becomes more dollarised; and in third place, the likelihood of voter apathy and low turnout.
In southern Bolívar state two rival opposition candidates came to blows in front of a startled head of the EU electoral observation mission. In Miranda state, the opposition presented two rival gubernatorial candidates, making a PSUV victory more likely (one of them, Carlos Ocariz, eventually stepped down ten days before the polls). Henrique Capriles, an opposition leader and former presidential candidate who has argued in favour of participating in the polls, said that the government was in any case actively seeking a high abstention rate, since a high turnout normally favours the opposition. Local consultancy Datanálisis has calculated that if the abstention rate exceeds 55% the ruling PSUV-led coalition may end up winning 18 of the 23 state governorships.
One of the effects of the electoral fragmentation of the opposition has been to weaken the leadership role of Juan Guaidó, who is still recognised by the US and other governments as the legitimate president of Venezuela. The Maduro government can be expected to take further “divide and rule” measures in the weeks after the elections.