On 18 November, campaigning closed ahead of Venezuela’s 21 November regional and municipal elections.
Analysis:
These elections will mark the first time that the opposition has participated in an election since 2017, when it began a policy of boycotting votes in protest at alleged electoral fraud and political violence committed by armed government supporters. The abandonment of the boycott strategy is a recognition that it has enabled the ruling Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela (PSUV) to dominate every level of government, whilst failing to delegitimise President Nicolás Maduro’s administration in the eyes of enough voters to trigger sustained mass protests. The election campaign has seen greatly diminished violence and repression compared with previous election cycles, and the presence of international electoral observers has raised opposition hopes.
- The vote on 21 November will see the election of 3,082 public officials, including 23 state governors, 335 mayors, 253 state legislators, and 2,471 local councillors.
- The presence of some 300 election observers from the European Union (EU) has added to a sense of relative calm ahead of the election. Opposition parties have been able to canvass freely, and rallies by opposition candidates have not descended into clashes between pro- and anti-government groups, as they did in previous election campaigns.
- Nevertheless, the opposition faces several major obstacles. Many opposition candidates are warning of a strong possibility of fraud, noting that the PSUV retains control over the national electoral council (CNE). Perhaps more significant, however, is a general failing of the fragmented opposition to unite. Rival opposition parties are fielding separate candidates in several gubernatorial races, splitting the opposition vote. Several smaller parties are boycotting the elections, claiming that they will not be free or fair. These boycotts may have a knock-on effect on the main opposition parties by discouraging turnout and feeding a sense of apathy among voters.
- Meanwhile, the PSUV may be boosted by signs that Venezuela’s catastrophic, eight-year economic decline is bottoming out, with hyperinflation cooling amid a de-facto dollarisation of the economy.
Looking Ahead: Voter turnout will be key to the opposition’s chances. The local pollster Datanálisis predicted last month that an abstention rate of 55% or higher could see the ruling PSUV-led coalition win 18 of the 23 gubernatorial races. Datanálisis predicts uneven turnout in different states, of between around 40% and 70% of eligible voters.