On 18 November campaigns closed ahead of Chile’s 21 November general election.
Analysis:
The elections are widely seen as the most important turning point in Chilean politics since the restoration of democracy in 1990. They are expected to end a three-decade period in which traditional centre-right and centre-left coalitions have alternated in power and dominated Chilean politics. They come after the mass street protests of 2019 which focused attention on inequality and triggered a process of constitutional reform.
- Opinion polling companies have misread the outcome of recent elections, but it is widely expected that no presidential candidate will win an outright majority, triggering a second-round run-off on 19 December.
- Centre-right candidate Sebastián Sichel of Chile Podemos Más (the ruling coalition previously known as Chile Vamos) and Yasna Provoste of Nuevo Pacto Social, a coalition of traditional centre-left parties broadly considered to have succeeded the Concertación coalition, are not expected to go through, with the second round being a contest between the new formations led by far-right frontrunner José Antonio Kast (Partido Republicano) and left-wing Gabriel Boric (Apruebo Dignidad).
- Kast appeals to Chilean conservatives on issues such as reducing immigration and crime and the promotion of religion and family values. At a closing rally in the upmarket district of Las Condes in Santiago, he told supporters that there are recipes for economic recovery but there are none available “to recover freedom after the Left takes power.”
- Boric attended a series of rallies in the port city of Valparaíso stressing the need to build a state “which guarantees rights, dignity and equality as the only way of achieving stability.” The candidate said the state should include, embrace, and not abandon its citizens.
- The polls will be held only five days after the senate rejected an attempt to impeach incumbent President Sebastián Piñera. Analysts believe this may have a polarising effect on the vote, with right wingers celebrating the failure to impeach, while left wingers highlight the seriousness of the charges.
Looking Ahead: With a still-large number of undecided voters, surprises are still possible in the first round, although the balance of probabilities still points to a second-round contest between Kast and Boric.