On 22 November, Óscar Iván Zuluaga won the ruling right-wing Centro Democrático (CD) party’s nomination for Colombia’s May 2022 presidential election.
Analysis:
Zuluaga has some serious ground to make up if he is to become Colombia’s next president. The CD’s image has been tarnished in the eyes of many voters by the violent crackdown on anti-government protesters earlier this year, and longstanding inequalities exacerbated by the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic appear to have driven up support for the leftist frontrunner Gustavo Petro (Colombia Humana).
- Zuluaga will stand for the ruling CD, which has been dragged down in the polls during President Iván Duque’s turbulent final year in office. He will face a major challenge improving the party’s reputation following the Duque administration’s much-criticised response to the prolonged social unrest earlier this year, which saw widespread police brutality.
- Zuluaga is a well-known figure among Colombia’s conservatives, winning the first round of the 2014 presidential election before losing in the run-off vote to Juan Manuel Santos (2010-2018), and serving as finance minister from 2007-2010 under former president Álvaro Uribe (2002-2010).
- As the ‘Uribista’ candidate, Zuluaga can be expected to maintain CD’s hardline stance on security issues. He is critical of the 2016 peace agreement with the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (Farc) guerrilla group, although he has said he would support the peace deal if he wins the presidency. Accepting the party’s nomination, he said aims to deliver “Democratic Security 2.0” – a reference to Uribe’s flagship security programme, which dramatically reduced violence but also saw widespread human rights abuses by the security forces.
- Zuluaga is likely to be popular with Colombia’s business community, having successfully averted a recession following the 2008 financial crisis during his time as finance minister. A supporter of free trade agreements and a firm backer of the fiscal rule limiting government deficits, Zuluaga will position himself as the market-friendly alternative to Petro.
Looking Ahead: Petro continues to hold a striking lead in the polls with 22% of the intended vote, according to a 13 November poll by the Centro Nacional de Consultoría (CNC). Zuluaga only scored 3% of voting intentions in that poll, although he can expect to receive votes from supporters of his main rival for the CD nomination, María Fernanda Cabal, who polled 4%.