A Factum survey published on 23 November shows support for the ruling centre-right coalition in Uruguay remains high at 50%, while the left-wing opposition coalition Frente Amplio (FA) is backed by 40% of respondents.
Analysis:
The survey brings broadly good news for President Luis Alberto Lacalle Pou, who in March will have completed the first two years of his five-year presidential term. It showed that if general elections were to be held now, his ‘multicolour’ coalition would win, with a 10-percentage point advantage over the Left. This is consistent with Lacalle Pou’s high personal approval rating.
- The FA remains the single most popular party with 39% support. It is followed by the five members of Lacalle Pou’s coalition: Partido Nacional (PN) on 30%, Cabildo Abierto (CA) (9%), Partido Colorado (PC) (8%), Partido Independiente (PI) (2%), and Partido de la Gente (PG) (1%).
- Party support appears to have remained broadly constant in the two years since the October 2019 general election. The FA’s 39% is unchanged, while ruling coalition parties have dropped four percentage points from 54% to 50%.
- Lacalle Pou’s handling of the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic has been popular, helping the PN and coalition partners. His own approval rating was last measured by Factum in September at 61%. Approval peaked at 66% in late-2020, dropped to 56% in February 2021 as Uruguay experienced a pandemic second wave, and has since recovered.
- Two future events may ‘move the needle’ as far as party support and presidential approval ratings are concerned. In December the FA must renew its party leadership. Currently the main contenders for both the presidency and the vice-presidency of the party are the mayors of Canelones, Yamandú Orsi, and Montevideo, Carolina Cosse. Both are potential 2024 presidential candidates.
- The second key event is likely to be the referendum in March on whether to approve or reject 135 articles in the government’s omnibus reforms law, the Ley de Urgente Consideración (LUC). Polls suggest a majority voters are likely to align with the government rather than the opposition on this issue.
Looking Ahead: A separate poll by Cifra focusing on the leadership contest within the FA suggests that Orsi is ahead, with 31% of the general population supporting him, against 12% backing Cosse, followed by former president José Mujica (2010-2015) and former mayor of Montevideo Daniel Martínez, each with 4%.