On 25 November Željana Zovko, the head of the European Union Electoral Observer Mission (EU-EOM) in Honduras, urged that the 28 November general elections be held in a peaceful and transparent manner.
Analysis:
Zovko’s call comes amid concerns about electoral violence and fraud ahead of the vote, in which the presidency, vice presidency, all seats in the 128-member unicameral legislature and 298 mayoralties are up for grabs. Fears regarding electoral violence and fraud have mounted as surveys show former first lady (2006-2009) Xiomara Castro, of the leftist main opposition alliance Alianza por el Pueblo, ahead of Tegucigalpa mayor Nesry Asfura, of the ruling Partido Nacional (PN), ahead of the vote, in which a simple majority is required to win. Castro has previously warned that democracy was being threatened by the PN, which election watchers point out has a huge stake in the election given that a defeat for the ruling party, which has been in office since 2010, could open up the possibility of President Juan Orlando Hernández, whose own contentious election in 2017 was slammed as fraudulent and triggered post-electoral violence, facing possible action over drug trafficking allegations in the US.
- Castro is pledging to address corruption, a major voter concern following the ejection in January 2020 of the Mission to Support the Fight against Corruption and Impunity in Honduras (Maccih), which was sponsored by the Organisation of American States (OAS). She is proposing to request another international commission against corruption and impunity in Honduras (CICIH), among other initiatives.
- Her other pledges include plans to establish a national constituent assembly to redraw the 1982 constitution; to repeal the law of the employment and economic development zones (Zedes), a contentious PN project; and to establish diplomatic and trade relations with mainland China (and sever ties with Taiwan) to address Honduras’ rising debt (which totalled 58.9% of GDP in 2020, up from 48.7% in 2019).
- Asfura, who has also been accused of corruption, is widely considered to represent continuity with the current administration. He has said his key priority is creating jobs and has sought to distinguish himself from the president, insisting that he is “different” – perhaps indicative of Hernández’s unpopularity.
Looking Ahead: Amid concerns of fraud, violence and operational glitches on voting day, the elections are due to be observed by missions from the OAS as well as the EU.