Back

Weekly Report - 09 December 2021 (WR-21-49)

Click here for printer friendly version
Click here for full report

COSTA RICA: Indecision grows ahead of election

The latest survey by the centre for research and policy studies (CIEP) of the Universidad de Costa Rica (UCR) ahead of the 6 February general elections shows that indecision is growing among voters. The think tank links this to concerns about political corruption and the ongoing impact of the ‘Cochinilla’ public works scandal which broke in June [WR-21-25], as well as more recent corruption cases, such as ‘Diamante’, which broke last month and implicates municipal officials.

Released on 24 November, the CIEP survey, which interviewed 900 people and had a 3.2% error margin, showed that those who described themselves as ‘undecided’ had increased to 53.0% in November, up from 48.0% the previous month. It also showed that no presidential candidate garnered 15% of voting intentions and just three candidates managed over 5% support.

The continued frontrunner remains the candidate for the main opposition right-of-centre Partido Liberación Nacional (PLN), former president José María Figueres (PLN, 1994-1998), although his support has slumped to 13.0% down from 19% in October. In second place on 10% is Lineth Saborío, a former vice president (PLN, 2002-2006) who now belongs to the right-of-centre opposition Partido Unidad Social Cristiana (PUSC), up from 8%. The 2014 presidential candidate José María Villalta, of the leftist opposition Frente Amplio (FA), is on 6%, up by two percentage points. Welmer Ramos, the candidate for the ruling centre-left Partido Acción Ciudadana (PAC), is on just 1%, down from 2% in October.

The survey concludes that it is ‘highly unlikely’ that any candidate will secure 40% of the support necessary to avoid a presidential second-round run-off in February 2022. However, commitment to voting has not changed, with 79% of respondents indicating that they plan to cast their ballots.

One notable finding from the survey was that corruption has once again become the main voter concern, and was cited as such by 27.3% of respondents, ahead of unemployment (20.1%), which previously topped the list of voter concerns, and the cost of living (17.3%).

CIEP links this change to recent corruption scandals, such as the cases of ‘Cochinilla’, which drew parallels with the 2017 Cementazo scandal (involving Sinocem Costa Rica, the Costa Rican subsidiary of a Chinese cement exporter, and top public officials). The so-called ‘Diamante’ scandal made headlines on 15 November. Six mayors (four of them aligned with the PLN) were arrested for allegedly participating in a corruption scheme involving public infrastructure contracts.

As regards the Diamante case, Wálter Espinoza, the director of Costa Rica’s judicial investigation agency (OIJ), told the press at the time that 83 raids were carried out across different municipalities to investigate alleged crimes of bribery, influence peddling and corruption following an investigation which began in April 2019 and lasted until August 2021. Espinoza said that the case involves Constructora Meco SA, a major construction firm which was also implicated in the Cochinilla case.

Those arrested on this occasion include long-serving mayors and well-known figures including San José mayor and former PLN presidential candidate Johnny Araya, and three other PLN members: Alfredo Córdoba Soro (San Carlos municipality, Alajuela province), Alberto Cole de León (Osa, Puntarenas), and Humberto Soto Herrera (Alajuela, Alajuela). Also arrested were the mayor of Cartago, in the eponymous province, Mario Redondo Poveda (of the small Partido Alianza Demócrata Cristiana) and the mayor of Escazú, San José, Arnoldo Barahona, of the Partido Nueva Generación (PNG).

According to the CIEP poll, 57.6% of respondents said that they were aware of the ‘Diamante’ case, while 41.2% said that it affected their voting preferences ‘a lot’. The other recent case noted by the CIEP was that of the so-called ‘Azteca’ scandal, which made headlines on 9 November amid reports that the OIJ had carried out 37 raids and arrested 27 individuals for the alleged crimes of narcotrafficking, money laundering, illicit enrichment, and corruption.

Those arrested included 14 public officials from the Instituto Costarricense de Acueductos y Alcantarillados (AyA), the institute of aqueducts and sewers, who, according to local press reports, allegedly colluded with a criminal gang in laundering at least ¢678m (US$1m) using two construction companies that were granted 17 public work contracts in the period 2020-2021. According to the CIEP poll, 78% of respondents expressed concern that narco-trafficking money could affect democracy.

Pandemic spending

On 25 November, Costa Rica’s health ministry and the Pan-American Health Organisation (PAHO) presented a study which showed that Costa Rica had assigned ¢170.6bn (US$279m) for health spending in relation to the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic in 2020, equivalent to 0.5% of Costa Rica’s GDP. According to the study, most of this (US$184m) went to the national social security institute (CCSS), followed by the national emergency commission (US$54m), while the health ministry received US$39m.

LatinNews
Intelligence Research Ltd.
167-169 Great Portland Street,
5th floor,
London, W1W 5PF - UK
Phone : +44 (0) 203 695 2790
Contact
You may contact us via our online contact form
Copyright © 2022 Intelligence Research Ltd. All rights reserved.