Peru’s right-wing dominated congress tried and failed to impeach the country’s left-wing president, Pedro Castillo, on 7 December. It was the fifth impeachment attempt (known as a ‘moción de vacancia’) in the last four years; two of them have successfully removed sitting presidents. Ominously for Castillo, it is unlikely to be the last.
The Peruvian constitution envisages the removal of a sitting president, for what is called a “permanent moral incapacity” as a rare and extreme event. Between 1823 and 2000, the procedure was used just three times. But all of that has changed in the last four years during which time the procedure has been invoked on no fewer than five separate occasions - on average more than once a year - becoming normalised and increasingly deployed as an everyday, tactical, political device. Of those five attempts, two were successful, forcing the departure of Presidents Pedro Pablo Kuczynski in 2018 and Martín Vizcarra in 2020.
This latest attempt also stands out because it comes at such an early stage of the current presidency - a little over four months after Castillo took office in late July. Castillo has certainly had a chaotic and conflictive start to his five-year term in office: the right-wing parties that hold sway in congress saw this as an opportunity to deliver an early knock-out blow.
The right-wing opposition cited their ongoing (and still unsubstantiated) claims that Castillo’s election had been fraudulent; ongoing corruption investigations involving presidential aides; and recent allegations that Castillo’s presidential secretary, Bruno Pacheco, intervened illegally to ensure the promotion of military officers sympathetic to his government (Pacheco subsequently resigned). Under a separate investigation into this case, Castillo has been summoned to appear before a state prosecutor on 14 December.
In order to succeed, the attempt to oust Castillo needed to meet two requirements. The first was to gather the support of 40% of those members of the 130-seat congress who were present in the chamber at the time the vote was held. As 128 were present, that meant mustering 52 deputies in favour of the impeachment motion.
Supposing that bar was met, the next test would have been to gain a two-thirds majority - at least 87 votes - in the full impeachment hearing, at which the president is required to attend, to answer the charges. In the event, the attempt failed at the first hurdle – the impeachment motion attracted 46 votes in favour, which was six short of the target. A bigger group of 76 voted against, and there were four abstentions.
There were three major parties pushing for impeachment: the ‘neo-liberal’ Avanza País-Partido de Integración Social (AP-PIN), which initiated the process; the right-wing Frente Popular (FP, Fujimoristas) led by Keiko Fujimori, who was narrowly defeated by Castillo in the presidential elections earlier this year), and the far-right Renovación Popular (RP).
Some deputies from the populist party Podemos Perú (PP) and from the populist centre-right Alianza Para el Progreso (APP) also supported the impeachment motion. Perú Libre (PL), the hard-left party which supported Castillo’s presidential campaign but is now somewhat estranged from the president, together with the moderate left Juntos por el Perú (JPP), supported Castillo, accusing the right-wing opposition of still failing to acknowledge its presidential election defeat. Others voting against impeachment included centrist parties Acción Popular (AP) and Somos Perú, together with the liberal Partido Morado.
- Opposition divisions
Mutual recriminations were flying between the leaders of opposition parties in congress after the failed attempt to impeach President Castillo. The president of Alianza Para el Progreso, César Acuña, insinuated that because of their own private interests Somos Perú, Partido Morado, and Podemos Perú could now be considered “government allies”. The secretary general of Partido Morado, Rodolfo Pérez, accused Acuña of being “unhinged” and argued that his party’s position against impeachment was “institutional, in defence of the constitution”.
Far from over
There are signs that this is just the first stage of an impeachment saga that could run and run. Retired Admiral Jorge Montoya, a deputy for RP, said it was likely that there would be further impeachment attempts. “This does not end here. It is not a sprint but a marathon. There will be further attempts to impeach,” Paula Távara, a Peruvian political scientist, said.
Távara believes that the opposition wants to have the president summoned to congress to face impeachment charges, to wear him down politically. Even if it ultimately fails to meet the second two-thirds pro-impeachment majority, the trial would inflict damage on Castillo and weaken his government. New attempts may also be designed to help whittle down the pro-Castillo vote, for example by peeling away some of the centrist parties.
While previous impeachment proceedings have attracted mass demonstrations, on this occasion much of the population appeared disconnected and alienated from what they see as an internal crisis shaking a discredited political system. There were pro and anti-impeachment rallies, but attendance at both was only in the hundreds.
As many as 45% of respondents are in favour of Castillo’s impeachment, according to an opinion survey conducted by the national pollster Datum from 4-6 December, although a majority, 52%, oppose it. Other recent public opinion polls show that Castillo’s disapproval rating is high, at 58%, according to an Ipsos poll published on 25 November, but that the disapproval rating of congress, as is nearly always the case in Peru, is even higher, at 75%.
While the Ipsos poll found that 37% of respondents still support Castillo, as many as 70% felt he had made poor ministerial appointments. It was noteworthy that just 7% of respondents advocated appointing ministers from the ranks of PL or allied parties, while 81% expressed a preference for independent and experienced professionals in the cabinet.
Meanwhile, many on the centre left – Castillo’s most likely allies in any attempt to stabilise the government – are in despair over his administration. Alonso Segura, a former economy minister (2014-2016) under the originally left-leaning government of Ollanta Humala (2011-2016), commented: “It is a chaotic government that has no idea how to manage things and does not dispel doubts as to where it is going.” Several opinion surveys show that a majority of respondents are of the opinion that Castillo will not manage to complete his five-year term in office.