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LatinNews Daily - 10 December 2021

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Main Briefing

On 10 December Nicaragua’s government led by President Daniel Ortega announced that it had established diplomatic relations with mainland China and severed ties with Taiwan.

Analysis:

Nicaragua has become the fifth country in the sub-region, historically a bastion of international support for Taiwan, to sever ties with Taipei in favour of Beijing in recent years. This is a major coup for Beijing in its quest to secure unanimous support towards recognising the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The move is not a huge surprise given the Ortega government is seeking much-needed foreign assistance amid growing isolation on the international stage following the 7 November election which produced a re-election victory for Ortega but was widely slammed as a sham – this isolation was evidenced in Nicaragua’s recent decision to leave the Organisation of American States (OAS).  It comes amid ever-deteriorating ties with the US, its most important trade ally, which is threatening further sanctions including Nicaragua’s possible suspension from the US-Central America Free Trade Agreement (Cafta).

  • The decision was announced following a meeting in Tianjin, a city near Beijing, between China’s deputy foreign minister Ma Zhaoxu and Ortega’s son, Laureano Ortega, a presidential adviser on investment. According to a joint communiqué, the Nicaraguan government recognises the existence of just one China (that of the PRC) and that “Taiwan is an inalienable part of China’s territory”.
  • Taiwan's foreign ministry issued a statement expressing “extreme regret” in response to Nicaragua’s “unilateral” decision. According to the most recent (June 2021) report on foreign cooperation by Nicaragua’s central bank, Taiwan was one of Nicaragua’s main bilateral donors in 2020, providing US$28.0m of the total US$245.67m in bilateral assistance last year.
  • Nicaragua’s decision follows similar decisions by El Salvador and the Dominican Republic in 2018, Panama in 2017, and Costa Rica in 2007. It leaves just 14 countries in the world as allies of Taiwan, including Guatemala, Honduras, Belize, Haiti, St Kitts & Nevis, St Vincent & the Grenadines, and St Lucia in Central America and the Caribbean.
  • Nicaragua had previously cut ties with Taiwan in 1985 before re-establishing relations in 1990 under then President Violeta Chamorro (1990-1997). Speculation had earlier emerged regarding a possible switch in Nicaragua after the Ortega government awarded Chinese firm HKND the US$50bn concession in 2013 to build and operate Nicaragua’s inter-oceanic ‘Gran Canal’ project to link the country’s Caribbean and Pacific coasts – a project which has yet to show any sign of materialising.
  • In a statement yesterday in response to Nicaragua’s breaking of relations with Taiwan, US State Department press spokesperson Ned Price said the decision “cannot reflect the will of the people” due to the “sham election”. Indicative of the continuing deterioration in ties with the US, yesterday the US State Department also announced new sanctions on Néstor Moncada Lau, a national security advisor to the Nicaraguan government “for engaging in significant corruption”, linking him to “an import and customs fraud scheme” to enrich government members.

Looking Ahead: Nicaragua’s announcement will draw particular alarm in the US at a time when president-elect Xiomara Castro in neighbouring Honduras has similarly floated severing ties with Taiwan in favour of mainland China in order to address Honduras’s debt, although since winning the 28 November general election her advisors have cast doubt over this pledge.

Andean

On 9 December, several Peruvian civil and indigenous organisations called on the justice ministry to publish in the official gazette a supreme court (CSJ) ruling from January on the right to prior consultation.

Analysis:

The ruling, which would toughen standards for consultation with communities regarding public work contracts, has not taken effect due to it not having been published in the official gazette. Indigenous groups are losing patience with the government over the issue.

  • In January the CSJ ruled to strengthen communities’ right to prior consultation by establishing 14 standards, including that this must be carried out before projects are officially announced in order to give communities sufficient time to debate their response; and that communities should participate in all phases of the development of infrastructure projects, rather than receiving a one-off consultation.
  • The CSJ also ruled that it is the state’s obligation not only to ensure consultation, but also to obtain free, informed and prior consent. Diego Saavedra Celestino, of the environmental NGO Derecho, Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (DAR), yesterday described this as “a great step forwards, as it will enable us to move on from the idea that consultation is merely an informative process, and reaffirm its character as an inter-cultural dialogue.”
  • Jorge Pérez, president of the indigenous organisation Asociación Interétnica de Desarrollo de la Selva Peruana (Aidesep), yesterday called on top officials including Culture Minister Andrea Gisela Ortiz, a human rights activist, to “take the final step to right this nearly decade-old wrong against our people, and to incorporate our ancestral beliefs and our proposals in decisions of the state that could impact us.”
  • DAR argues that the CSJ ruling could be applied retroactively to infrastructure projects carried out since the Law on Prior Consultation was passed in 2012 – potentially paving the way for legal action by communities who feel that their objections were overridden.

Looking Ahead: On 13 December, organisations including Aidesep and DAR will hold a meeting with the transport and communications ministry (MTC) to demand increased consultation on the Hidrovía Amazónica dredging project in Loreto region, which will provide some insight into the government’s response to the CSJ ruling.

* Colombia’s state-owned oil company Ecopetrol has announced its investment plan for 2022, under which it expects to spend between US$4.8bn and US$5.8bn to deliver “profitable growth in production.” In a statement, Ecopetrol said that “these investments will support production of between 700,000 and 705,000 barrels per day (bpd), transported volumes greater than a million bpd, and the expansion of the transmission side of the business.” Of those investments, approximately 70% will go towards projects in Colombia, while the remaining 30% will be spent on projects in the US, Brazil, Peru, and Chile.

Brazil

On 9 December, Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro said that his government is free from corruption, a claim made many times before although it contradicts both facts and comments made by the president himself a few days earlier. 

Analysis:

Bolsonaro’s anti-corruption discourse formed an important part of his election campaign in 2018 and helped attract voters disillusioned with traditional parties tarnished by corruption scandals. However, his words have often rung hollow: many of his family members and close allies are under investigation for corruption; he has joined forces with a political party led by a politician convicted for graft; and his government has been hit by suspicions of corruption, notably regarding the procurement of coronavirus (Covid-19) vaccines. With anti-corruption judge (and, still for some, hero) Sergio Moro expected to challenge Bolsonaro’s re-election bid next year, the president will struggle to reclaim the anti-corruption narrative that served him so well in the last election.

  • Bolsonaro spoke at an event held yesterday to present the government’s ‘Anti-Corruption Plan’, which has been developed by an inter-ministerial committee and aims to improve efforts at preventing, detecting, and punishing corruption. The comptroller-general’s office (CGU) said 153 actions will be taken by 2025 to this end, of which 60 will be completed this year. A number of bills were presented during the event, including one regulating lobbies and another promoting more transparency in the agendas of public officials. 
  • Saying that corruption scandals used to emerge every week in previous governments, Bolsonaro praised his cabinet. “We don’t have a single case of corruption in the high circles of government”, he said. Yet on 6 December, in response to a question from a supporter, Bolsonaro had said “I won’t say that there is no corruption in my government. Often we don’t know what is happening”.  
  • In a pre-recorded message shown yesterday, Mathias Cormann, the secretary-general of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which Brazil wants to join, stressed that corruption prevents “the full exercise of public functions” and “weakens the values of democracy”

Looking Ahead: Bolsonaro, who faces criticism for eroding democracy as well as for his disputable record fighting corruption, is expected to evoke his government’s anti-corruption plan during his participation today at the Summit for Democracy, organised by US President Joe Biden.

* Brazil’s national statistics institute (Ibge) has released its second projection for the 2022 harvest of grains, cereals, legumes and oilseeds, which predicts a record yield next year. According to the Ibge, the 2022 season will yield a harvest of 278m tonnes (t), a 2.7% increase on its earlier forecast, and a 10% increase, or 25.2m t, on the 2021 harvest. The 2021 harvest, which has been hit by a drought and frosts, is expected to come in at 252.8m t, down 0.5% on 2020. The Ibge expects an increase in soya, maize, and sorghum, amongst other things, next year, while it predicts that production of rice and wheat will fall.

Central America & Caribbean

* Cuba’s economy & planning ministry (MEP) has approved 113 new micro, small and medium-size enterprises (MSMEs). In line with new legislation which took effect on 20 September, permitting MSMEs to incorporate for the first time since 1968, this brings the total number of MSMEs and non-agricultural cooperatives in the country to 1,014 (of which 18 are non-agricultural cooperatives), which the government says has created 15,801 new jobs. The legislation was the latest bid by the government to shore up the domestic economy, which shrank 11% in 2020 due to the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic and US economic sanctions.

Mexico

On 9 December, Mexico’s federal attorney general’s office (FGR) announced that it was launching an investigation into a road accident that killed over 50 migrants in Chiapas state.   

Analysis:  

The accident, which has left at least 54 dead and over 100 injured, is one of the worst single-day death tolls for migrants in Mexico’s history. The incident will pile pressure on President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s government over the protection of migrant rights at a time when it faces increased scrutiny following the recent resumption of the controversial migrant protection protocol (MPP), also known as the ‘Remain in Mexico’ programme.  

  • The accident occurred when a truck carrying migrants from Guatemala lost control on the road between the municipalities of Chiapa de Corzo and Tuxtla Gutiérrez (Chiapas state). According to the Chiapas civil protection agency, a local government body, those killed or injured in the accident come from Guatemala, Honduras, Ecuador, the Dominican Republic, and Mexico. 
  • The FGR will work with the specialised prosecutor’s offices for human rights (FEMDH) and regional control (FECOR) to carry out the investigation. Mexico’s national migration institute (INM), which will also assist the investigation, stated it will offer humanitarian support to survivors including accommodation, food, and visitor cards for humanitarian reasons, which give migrants access to health services, education and formal work in Mexico. 
  • The accident comes days after the resumption of the MPP, which forces migrants who are seeking asylum in the US to stay in Mexico while their application is processed. The programme has been criticised on humanitarian grounds and exposes the US and Mexican governments to scrutiny over the treatment of migrants. The latest deaths in Chiapas will exacerbate this scrutiny. 
  • The accident prompted a response from top officials across Mexico and Central America. López Obrador said he “deeply regrets” the “very painful” incident. Guatemala’s President Alejandro Giammattei expressed his solidarity with victims’ relatives, while El Salvador’s foreign minister, Alexandra Hill, said her government was working to confirm whether Salvadoreans were involved in the crash.  

Looking Ahead: The incident is the latest contradiction to the US and Mexico's pledge to “prioritise respect for and the guarantee of [migrants’] human rights”. In a week where both governments have come under fire for restarting the unpopular MPP, the accident will intensify pressure on López Obrador to put the safeguarding of migrants before US demands to stem migration flows.   

* Mexico’s national statistics institute (Inegi) has released its latest figures on the national consumer price index (INPC) which show that monthly inflation stood at 1.14% in November, up from 0.84% the previous month. This brings the annual rate to 7.37%, more than twice the 3% inflation target figure for 2021 set by Mexico’s central bank (Banxico). The latest inflation figures reinforce speculation that Banxico will raise its benchmark interest rate for a fifth consecutive time when it meets next week for the final monetary policy meeting of the year, following increases of 25 basis points in November, September, August and June.

Southern Cone

On 9 December, Chile’s foreign ministry announced that the International Criminal Court (ICC) at The Hague was dropping an investigation into crimes against humanity allegedly committed by President Sebastián Piñera and other officials during the wave of street protests that commenced in October 2019.

Analysis:

The case was filed at the ICC last April by various Chilean human rights groups and by former Spanish judge Baltasar Garzón. It alleged the president was responsible for serious human rights violations committed in the government’s response to the protests, which left around 30 dead, 460 people with eye injuries, and over 8,800 allegations of crimes committed by the state security forces. The foreign ministry said the ICC had concluded there was not sufficient evidence to merit further investigation of crimes committed in areas over which it had jurisdiction.

  • The government welcomed the ICC decision as “good news”. Government spokesman Jaime Bellolio said that “contrary to the claims of the radical left,” it showed there had been no policy of systematic human rights violations.
  • The Chilean human rights commission (CCHDH), one of the organisations that filed the original complaint, said the ICC decision was not final and the case could be re-opened if new evidence emerged.
  • Gabriel Boric, the left-wing candidate in the 19 December presidential second round run-off, said that he regretted the ICC decision and would continue to support investigation of human rights violation “in all pertinent instances”.
  • The far-right candidate in the second round, José Antonio Kast, said it was clear that President Piñera had committed no crimes.
  • Senator Juan Ignacio Latorre (of left-wing party Revolución Democrática) said the 2019 protests remained the most serious human rights crisis in the country since the return of democratic rule over three decades ago. They had generated a multitude of local and international investigations but in Chile itself despite many court cases there were few convictions and “almost nobody” had been imprisoned. 
  • From the right of the political spectrum, deputy Diego Schalper (Renovación Nacional) dismissed the complaint to the ICC as a “media show” by the far left, which knew it was unlikely to succeed but persisted anyway to make a political point. 

Looking Ahead: Deep left-right divisions in Chile were intensified by the street protests of 2019 and remain a key factor in the presidential race.

* Argentina’s minister for agriculture, livestock and fishing, Julián Domínguez, has presented a new plan to flexibilise beef exports in 2022 and 2023, after these were restricted earlier this year to stabilise prices in the domestic market. Following a meeting with industry leaders, Domínguez said that there will be “complete opening [for export] to emerging markets for category D, E, and F cows.” However, he said that restrictions would remain in place on the export of seven popular cuts of meat, including rump, shoulder, and various cuts of flank. Domínguez said that “the decision of President Alberto Fernández is to increase meat production, both by increasing Argentines’ access [to meat] and by generating predictability and confidence in the supply chain.”

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