LatinNews Daily - 13 December 2021

On 12 December, thousands of people took to the streets in El Salvador’s capital San Salvador to protest against the government led by President Nayib Bukele.

Analysis:

Bukele retains high approval ratings, but discontent has continued to mount over his perceived authoritarianism, and the protests were one of the biggest in the capital since he took office in June 2019. This discontent has gathered pace since September amid reforms to the judicial career law, widely condemned as a blow to judicial independence; a ruling by the supreme court’s constitutional chamber (SC) lifting the ban on immediate presidential re-election; and the adoption of cryptocurrency bitcoin as legal tender. Adding to this mix are fresh concerns about government corruption following new US sanctions imposed last week on three top Bukele allies – Carolina Recinos, the chief of cabinet; deputy security minister and director of prisons Osiris Luna; and Carlos Marroquín, the director of Unidad de Reconstrucción de Tejido Social (URTS) (a body which operates under the interior ministry to address the gang crisis).

• Those taking part in yesterday’s protests included judges, human rights activists, environmentalists, former guerrillas, war veterans, trade union members and representatives of other civil society groups. There was also a big police (PNC) and army presence, with roadblocks around the capital.
• The latest sanctions, which were announced on 8 and 9 December by the US State Department and US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (Ofac), accuse Recinos of engaging in “significant corruption by misusing public funds for personal benefit and participating in a money laundering scheme”. Luna and Marroquín are accused of involvement in “significant corruption by misappropriating public funds and interfering in public processes for personal profit”.
• According to Ofac, the sanctions involving Luna and Marroquín also relate to alleged covert negotiations between government officials and incarcerated leaders of gangs such as US Treasury-designated Mara Salvatrucha 13 (MS-13), echoing reports which emerged most recently by investigative media El Faro.
• According to Ofac, the two led, facilitated, and organised secret meetings involving incarcerated gang leaders, in which known gang members were allowed to enter the prison facilities and meet with senior gang leadership as part of the government’s efforts to negotiate a secret truce with gang leadership.
• Ofac also accused the Bukele government of “provid[ing] financial incentives” to MS-13 and the other main street gang Barrio-18 to reduce homicides and said the gangs agreed to provide political support to the ruling Nuevas Ideas (NI) ahead of the February 2021 legislative elections which saw the NI win an unprecedented two-thirds majority.
• Recinos, Luna, and Marroquín face visa restrictions from the US State Department, and all property and interests in property of these individuals, in the US or in the possession or control of persons subject to US jurisdiction, continue to be blocked, and must be reported to Ofac.
• As well as fanning public concerns regarding government corruption, the latest US sanctions have also placed a further strain on bilateral relations which are already at a low after President Bukele accused the US of financing the political opposition.

Looking Ahead: In a move further likely to inflame tensions with the US, which has increasingly made known its discontent with his administration over democracy-related issues, Bukele accused Washington of financing the protests yesterday. He tweeted “US taxpayers should know that their government is using their money to fund communist movements against a democratic elected…government in El Salvador”

On 10 December, Colombia’s transitional justice court (JEP) said that 21 military officers and one civilian had admitted responsibility for the murder of 247 victims as part of its investigation into the extrajudicial killings known as ‘false positives’.

Analysis:

News of the admissions was hailed as a sign of the effectiveness of the JEP, which was set up as part of the 2016 peace agreement between the government and the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (Farc) guerrilla group. As part of its work the JEP has been investigating so-called false positives, the killing of innocent civilians by the army, which then passed them off as Farc rebels supposedly killed in action, to give the impression of military success. The JEP is investigating 6,402 false positives said to have occurred between 2002 and 2008.

• The admissions of guilt refer to the murder by army units of 120 victims in the Catatumbo region and a further 127 deaths and ‘disappearances’ in Valledupar municipality, capital of César department.
• Among the 22 individuals who admitted responsibility was the most senior officer to date to have done so, General (retired) Paulino Coronado.
• Two colonels denied any involvement and their fate now rests with a prosecution unit which is expected to place them on trial. If found guilty they face up to 20 years in prison.
• Under its rules, for those who admit guilt and express remorse, the JEP does not have the power to issue prison sentences, but it can order house arrest or mobility restrictions as well reparations to local communities. JEP president, Judge Eduardo Cifuentes, highlighted the high proportion – 84% - of officers who, once accused, had admitted their guilt.
• The JEP concluded that the army and right-wing paramilitaries were involved in killing innocent civilians. The killings would not have happened, it said, if the army had not had a “body count” culture in which commanding officers put their subordinates under relentless pressure to increase the official casualty rates.

Looking Ahead: The military confessions come ahead of next year’s general and presidential elections in which the role of the peace settlement and concept of transitional justice is likely to face scrutiny. While JEP is also investigating war crimes by former Farc members, revelations of the extent of the false positives scandal are likely to place conservative candidates on the defensive. 

* Peru's central bank (BCRP) has raised its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 2.50%, its fifth rate hike in a row in response to persistent inflation. It first raised the benchmark interest rate to 0.5% from 0.25% in August – its first increase since the start of the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic after it slashed it from 1.25% in April 2020. In response to the latest increase, the BCRP said that the “present decision does not necessarily mean a cycle of successive hikes in the benchmark interest rate”, noting that Peru’s monetary policy continues to be expansive. The BCRP highlights that the annual inflation rate reached 5.66% in November, down from 5.83% in October which is significantly above its target range of 1%-3%. It cited among factors driving up inflation, a surge in international food and fuel prices. However, it added that it expects inflation to return to within the target band in the second half of 2022 as transitory pressures recede.

On 11 December, Luís Roberto Barroso, a justice in Brazil’s supreme court (STF), determined that the federal government must require incoming international travellers to show proof of vaccination against the coronavirus (Covid-19) to enter Brazil. 

Analysis:

With the federal government led by President Jair Bolsonaro remaining fiercely opposed to Covid-19 vaccine mandates in theory, and dithering about introducing them in practice, it was only a matter of time before the issue reached the supreme court. The STF has frequently weighed in on issues concerning the national response to the Covid-19 pandemic, for example ruling last year that state and municipal authorities could impose sanctions on individuals who refused to get vaccinated. 

• The question of whether international arrivals to Brazil should be asked for proof of vaccination against Covid-19 has been dragging on since the federal healthcare regulator (Anvisa) recommended this measure in November. The Bolsonaro government is vocally opposed to vaccine passports but faced growing pressure to introduce them.
• The government partially gave in last week, announcing on 7 December that unvaccinated travellers arriving in Brazil would be required to quarantine for five days then take a PCR test. However, the implementation of this measure was delayed after the government’s healthcare system suffered a cyber-attack, confirmed on 10 December, which affected the national health system (SUS)’s online services and the database of the national vaccination programme (PNI). 
• Justice Barroso issued his ruling a day later, in response to a complaint filed by the opposition Rede Sustentabilidade (Rede) party which requested that the government adopt all the Anvisa’s recommendations. Barroso expressed concern that Brazil’s successful vaccine rollout could be jeopardised by the arrival of unvaccinated tourists, and he stressed the urgency of the situation, given relaxed international travel and the upcoming end-of-year and Carnival festivities. Barroso said that the government’s 7 December decree was an insufficient measure as the text “presents ambiguities and inaccuracies that can give rise to divergent interpretations”. 

Looking Ahead: Barroso’s preliminary ruling is due to be voted on by the STF plenary on 15 December. The federal government has already said it will issue a new decree abiding by Barroso’s order.   

* Brazil’s national statistics institute (Ibge) has released the latest figures for the consumer price index (IPCA), which show that inflation continues to grow in Brazil. The IPCA stood at 0.95% in November, a slowdown compared with the 1.25% rate recorded in October, but the highest figure for the month of November since 2015. In the 12 months to November, inflation grew to 10.74%, up from 10.67% in October. Monthly inflation in November was driven primarily by a 3.35% variation in the transport category, due to a 7.38% increase in the price of petrol. The housing sector (1.03% inflation) also contributed to overall inflation, due to the effects of rising electricity prices (1.24%). Meanwhile, prices in the health & personal hygiene and food sectors declined in November, a phenomenon that Pedro Kislanov, Ibge’s coordinator of the IPCA, attributes to the effects of ‘Black Friday’ discounts.

* Honduras’s 128-member unicameral legislature has approved the government’s proposed 2022 state budget for L308bn (US$12.75bn), up from L288bn approved for 2021. Of the L308bn, L179bn will go on central government and L128bn for decentralised administration. Honduras’s finance minister Luis Matta told reporters that the budget includes resources assigned for health, education, and public investment aimed at contributing to job generation, human development, and economic reactivation following the damage caused by the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic and impact of the storms Eta and Iota which made landfall in November 2020, all of which caused the economy to contract 9% in 2020.

On 12 December, migrants clashed with security forces on the outskirts of Mexico City (CDMX). The migrants had set off in a caravan from Tapachula, a town on the border with Guatemala in the southern state of Chiapas, 50 days earlier. 

Analysis: 

The clash comes at a time when President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s government is under increased scrutiny for its treatment of migrants, following a fatal road accident that killed over 50 migrants in Chiapas state and the recent resumption of the controversial migrant protection protocol (MPP), also known as the ‘Remain in Mexico’ programme. 

• The migrant caravan was attempting to reach the Basilica of Our Lady of Guadalupe, a popular pilgrimage site. After the clash, buses were provided to take the migrants to the Basilica as a result of negotiations between city authorities and Mexico City’s commission of human rights (CDHCMX).
• CDHCMX president, Nashieli Ramírez, said there would be an investigation into who gave the order to carry out the “lamentable” operation on the outskirts of the city. 
• Security forces met migrants on arrival to CDMX. The government said it had been in “the process of informing and negotiating” with the migrants when a group attacked police. Officers then used riot shields to prevent migrants from progressing into the city. According to the CDMX government, 17 people were injured in the clash – 13 police officers and four migrants. 
• The clash comes when the protection of migrant rights in Mexico is under scrutiny, as the recent migrant truck crash drew headlines around the world. On 10 December, the governments of Mexico, the US, Guatemala, Ecuador, Honduras, Nicaragua and the Dominican Republic formed a working group to identify those responsible for trafficking the migrants. 
• In his 11 December press conference, López Obrador asked the US government to “respect Mexican migrants, migrants in general”, in a possible bid to divert criticism from his own government over the treatment of migrants.  

Looking Ahead: The arrival of the caravan to CDMX days after the fatal crash shows that migrants will continue to risk their lives to make the journey north. The response of security forces suggests migrant rights continue to play second fiddle to stemming migration flows.

* Mexico’s national social security institute (IMSS) has released a new report which shows that, as of 30 November, it had registered a total of 20.93m jobs – a record high. According to the same report, in November 165,463 new jobs were created in the formal sector, representing a monthly increase of 0.8% and a record high for the month of November. According to the IMSS, this is the first time in Mexico’s history that over 100,000 new jobs have been created in five consecutive months. 

On 11 December thousands of students, community activists, and trade unionists led a demonstration in Buenos Aires against what they described as an imminent economic stabilisation agreement between Argentina and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Analysis:

The protest was mainly organised by left-wing organisations, such as the Movimiento Socialista de los Trabajadores (MST), which between them lack sufficient congressional representation to block an IMF agreement. But it highlighted the growing tension within the ruling centre left Frente de Todos (FdT) coalition over the political repercussions of an IMF deal. Analysts believe a damaging split between supporters of President Alberto Fernández and Vice-President Cristina Fernández cannot be ruled out.

• On 10 December the IMF said there had been “progress” in the latest round of technical talks in Washington with an Argentine negotiating team, discussing the rescheduling of nearly US$44bn worth of debt and an associated economic stabilisation programme.
• On the same day both President Fernández and his vice president appeared together for the first time in three weeks at a rally to mark the second anniversary of the former’s term in office.
• Vice President Fernández criticised the IMF for supporting “failed economic models” and insisted there should be no heavy fiscal austerity, known as an ‘ajuste’. The president, seeking to defend the deal, reassured her that “the only plan that will be approved will be one that allows continuing economic recovery”.
• Ultimately opinions will differ over the degree of austerity that is acceptable. While agreeing on the need for growth, IMF officials have said the agreement has to include narrowing the fiscal deficit, controlling money supply, boosting dollar reserves, and reducing inflation.
• The government is clearly struggling to achieve a consensus within the ruling coalition, with economy minister Martín Guzmán trying to reconcile the requirements of Vice-President Fernández with those of IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva.

Looking Ahead: Immediately after the November md-term elections – in which the FdT coalition lost its majority in the senate, President Fernández promised to submit a multi-year economic programme to congress, which, it was understood, would mirror the IMF stabilisation agreement. The fact that it has still not appeared suggests domestic political consensus remains elusive, and the government is beginning to run out of time. To avoid default, an IMF programme needs to be finalised and ratified by congress by March.

* Uruguay’s President Luis Alberto Lacalle Pou and Foreign Minister Francisco Bustillo have arrived in Qatar for a five-day trip to boost trade and investment. According to state-run Qatari news agency Qatar news agency (QNA), Lacalle Pou highlighted his government’s interest in boosting economic cooperation with Qatar and establishing long-term trade partnerships. The same source cited first vice-chairman of Qatar’s chamber of commerce & industry (QCCI), Mohamed bin Twar Al Kuwari, as saying that he hoped the trip would “establish a new phase of cooperation” between the two countries in terms of trade and the economy. Al Kuwari also called on Qatari and Uruguayan companies “to open new channels of economic cooperation to explore investment opportunities” and “cooperate in forging joint investment enterprises and commercial alliances”. He said that there are many sectors in which both sides can cooperate such as retail, agriculture, food security, trading, sports, tourism, services, infrastructure, and other sectors.

Nicaragua: On 9 December, US State Department spokesperson Ned Price issued a statement in response to Nicaragua’s decision announced earlier that day to break diplomatic relations with Taiwan and establish relations with mainland China. According to Price’s statement, the “sham election” – a reference to the 7 November general election in Nicaragua which produced a re-election victory for President Daniel Ortega - “did not provide it with any mandate to remove Nicaragua from the family of American democracies. Without the mandate that comes with a free and fair election, Ortega’s actions cannot reflect the will of the Nicaraguan people, who continue to struggle for democracy and the ability to exercise their human rights and fundamental freedoms. We do know, however, that this deprives Nicaragua’s people of a steadfast partner in its democratic and economic growth.” Price’s statement continues: “Taiwan’s relationships with diplomatic partners in the Western Hemisphere provide significant economic and security benefits to the citizens of those countries. We encourage all countries that value democratic institutions, transparency, the rule of law, and promoting economic prosperity for their citizens to expand engagement with Taiwan.”

Brazil: On 3 December, the US embassy in Brazil announced that an investigation by Brazilian federal police supported by US Immigration and Custom Enforcement (ICE) Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) and the Human Rights and Special Prosecutions Section of the US Department of Justice’s Criminal Division led to 13 arrests and the disruption of a major human smuggling ring based in Brazil. According to a US embassy press release, with support from US law enforcement, on 2 December Brazilian authorities executed 21 search warrants in the Brazilian states of São Paulo and Minas Gerais. The arrests included numerous Brazil-based Bengali nationals on Brazilian federal charges of human smuggling and operating a criminal enterprise. The human smuggling organisation is alleged to be responsible for the illicit smuggling of scores of individuals from Bangladesh and other countries in South Asia into Brazil, and ultimately to the US. Brazil Acting HSI attaché Patrick Chen said: “We are grateful to the Brazilian federal authorities for their continued partnership in combating transnational criminal organisations”.

Mexico: On 7 December, Mexico’s agriculture & rural development ministry (Sader) announced the signing of an operational workplan with the US for the export of Hass avocados from Mexico’s Jalisco state, starting in April 2022. One of the plan’s requirements is that the production region must be free from quarantine pests known as avocado borers. Sader said that it expects the agreement to pave the way for Hass avocado exports from the states of Mexico (Edomex) and Nayarit which, together with Jalisco, are the main avocado producing states after Michoacán which currently exports Hass avocadoes to the US. Mexico is the main avocado-producing country in the world, producing over 2.3m tonnes of avocadoes in 2020, equivalent to 32% of global production. Last year Mexican producers exported 1.36m t of avocados which translated into sales of over US$3.46bn. The US is the main consumer of Mexican avocadoes, followed by Canada, Japan, Spain, and the Netherlands. According to Sader, in the first nine months of 2021 avocadoes were the country’s main agricultural export, generating sales of US$2.19bn.

Venezuela: On 2 December, US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland and the US ambassador to Venezuela, James Story, met with Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó and the Plataforma Unitaria party “to reaffirm the support of [US President] Joe Biden’s government for the negotiations for the restoration of democracy in Venezuela”. After the meeting, Nuland said in a tweet: “We stand with the Venezuelan people in their struggle for democracy, and urge the [Nicolás] Maduro regime to return to the negotiating table for the benefit of all Venezuelans”. Guaidó responded in another tweet, stating that “Every day the dictatorship freezes the possibility to reach an agreement there will be more suffering for our people. We will insist on a solution.”