On 5 January the president of Venezuela’s national assembly, Jorge Rodríguez, conditioned any resumption of dialogue with the opposition on various steep demands.
Analysis:
Rodríguez’s demands – that the US release Alex Saab, an alleged money launderer for President Nicolás Maduro’s government, and that the opposition accepts criminal wrongdoing over its management of Venezuela’s seized foreign assets – are extremely unlikely to be met. In some ways, the government’s need for dialogue has subsided. Venezuela’s economy is showing small signs of recovery after years of catastrophic decline, reducing the urgency to lift sanctions; meanwhile, the opposition’s decision to participate in November’s regional elections, which saw gains for the ruling Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela (PSUV), has enabled Maduro to present the party’s tight grip over the country’s institutions as legitimate.
- The Maduro administration had participated in three rounds of dialogue in Mexico with the opposition between August and September, in which the government sought the lifting of international sanctions and the opposition pushed for democratic reforms. These talks were suspended by the government on 16 October in protest at the extradition from Cape Verde to the US of Saab, who the Maduro administration claims was a diplomatic envoy to the dialogue process.
- Opposition leader Juan Guaidó yesterday reaffirmed the opposition’s willingness to “immediately” resume the negotiations with the aim of striking an “integral agreement” to deliver “free and fair elections.” Such an agreement, he said, would also “ensure the necessary guarantees for all Venezuelans, including the armed forces and the PSUV.”
- Guaidó also offered something of an olive branch to the Maduro administration, saying that he will support an investigation into the management of Venezuela’s overseas foreign assets that are controlled by the opposition. The government has accused the opposition of embezzling these funds, particularly since the Colombia-based Venezuelan fertiliser company Monómeros – run by the opposition since 2019 due to Colombia’s recognition of Guaidó as Venezuela’s legitimate president – was placed under administration by Colombia’s business regulator (SSC) in September amid allegations of financial mismanagement.
- Rodríguez, who headed the government delegation in the negotiations, yesterday seemed to pour cold water on hopes for a resumption of dialogue. He conditioned any future talks on the release of the “kidnapped diplomat” Saab, who awaits trial in the US for alleged conspiracy to commit money laundering. Rodríguez also demanded that the opposition “stop stealing assets,” highlighting Monómeros, Citgo (the US subsidiary of state oil company Pdvsa), and the Venezuelan gold reserves in the Bank of England, over which Guaidó and the Maduro administration are locked in a legal dispute. “If they want dialogue they have to first recognise that they made a grave error and committed crimes against the republic,” Rodríguez said.
- Foreign Minister Félix Plasencia yesterday slammed the US State Department’s 4 January announcement that it continues to recognise Guaidó as Venezuela’s interim president. Plasencia accused the US of “using a statement to try and legitimise the operations of a criminal group that is sadly famous for its role in the theft and squandering of the resources of the Venezuelan people that are currently hijacked abroad.” He called on President Joe Biden’s administration to agree to direct negotiations with the Maduro government and stop “continuing the financial, diplomatic and political persecution” he said had been launched by Biden’s predecessor, Donald Trump (2017-2021).
Looking Ahead: Should the government stand by its decision to condition renewed dialogue on Saab’s release, it will have effectively ruled out any prospect for a resumption of negotiations in the coming months. No date has yet been set for Saab’s trial.