On 30 October, leftist former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (2003-2011) of the left-wing Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) won the second round of Brazil’s presidential election with 50.9% of the vote to 49.1% for President Jair Bolsonaro of the right-wing Partido Liberal (PL).
Analysis:
This was the tightest election since Brazil’s return to democracy in 1985, with the difference between the two candidates standing at around 2m votes (out of 156.4m voters). The left’s return to government will bring Brazil in line with other major countries in the region (Mexico, Argentina, Peru, Colombia, and Chile). But, the election leaves Brazilian society fractured and deeply polarised. The fact that almost half of the country voted for Bolsonaro poses a challenge for Lula, who adopted a conciliatory tone in his victory speech. Bolsonaro is yet to recognise the result.
- Bolsonaro is the first president to lose a re-election bid in Brazil; Lula, the first to be elected to a third term.
- After the country’s top electoral court (TSE) confirmed his victory, Lula pledged to help “pacify” Brazil. “It is time to put our guns down,” he said. “This election put two opposing projects face to face and today we have a single great winner: the Brazilian people. This is neither a victory for me nor for the PT nor for the parties that supported me in this campaign. This is a victory for an immense democratic movement.”
- Bolsonaro did not comment on the results and, hours after they were announced, people who had gathered to hear him speak in Brasília gradually dispersed. According to the daily Folha de S. Paulo, cabinet ministers who tried to contact Bolsonaro were told he was in bed and at around 10pm the lights of the presidential palace were turned off.
- Although Bolsonaro has been making unfounded claims that Brazil’s voting system is vulnerable to fraud, the prompt recognition of the election results by key allies may have left him short of support to dispute them.
- After the TSE confirmed Lula’s victory, the president of the lower chamber of congress, Arthur Lira (Partido Progressista, PP), was quick to congratulate the PT candidate, stressing that “the will of the majority of the population, expressed through the vote, should never be contested.” The senate president, Rodrigo Pacheco (Partido Social Democrático, PSD), said congress stood ready to assist with the transition. Brazil’s chief public prosecutor (PGR) Augusto Aras, a Bolsonaro ally, also congratulated Lula.
- US President Joe Biden described Brazil’s elections as “free, fair, and credible”, adding that he “looks forward” to working with Lula. Other foreign governments also congratulated Lula, among them France, Spain, Colombia, China, Ukraine, and Russia.
- The election was marked by tension and episodes of political violence. On 29 October, pro-Bolsonaro federal deputy Carla Zambelli (PL) was caught on video pointing a gun at a black journalist after a political discussion at a restaurant in São Paulo.
Looking Ahead: Bolsonaro will probably address supporters today (31 October). It is not clear whether he intends to dispute the election results, but he may make the government transition more difficult for Lula. The presidential inauguration is scheduled for 1 January 2023.
