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Weekly Report - 25 November 2021 (WR-21-47)

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BRAZIL: Environmental credibility dead in the water

New data on deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon, released by the government’s Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (Inpe) on 18 November, has further damaged President Jair Bolsonaro’s reputation abroad, for two reasons. Firstly, annual deforestation has surged to a 15-year high. Secondly, the Bolsonaro administration deliberately held back on making this data public until after the conclusion of the United Nations Conference on Climate Change (COP26) in Glasgow, Scotland. Brazil has now lost whatever shred of environmental credibility it had succeeded in gaining at the COP26.

The Inpe’s report based on Prodes satellite data, which is released once a year and provides more reliable figures than the Deter data released on a monthly basis, indicates that deforestation in the year August 2020-July 2021 totalled 13,235km2. This represents a 22% increase on the previous year. It is also the highest figure recorded since 2006, when 14,286km2 of Amazon forest were cleared.

The figures are all the more shocking as Deter data had suggested that deforestation levels had remained stable this year, or maybe even diminished, compared with last year. As part of a change of strategy intended to project a greener image, the Bolsonaro administration had been touting indications of falling deforestation as a sign of the supposed success of its environmental policies – but it has now presided over three successive annual peaks in deforestation.

The Inpe’s report was made public in the week following the end of the COP26 in Scotland, and during which Brazil’s environment minister, Joaquim Leite, skirted the issue of current deforestation levels even as the country pledged to zero illegal deforestation by 2028. Prodes data would normally have been available by the time of the climate conference; and it has now emerged that the Bolsonaro government deliberately kept the Inpe’s data a secret, seemingly to avoid a backlash and increased pressure from the international community during the two-week summit.

A union of civil servants first accused the government of failing to divulge the numbers last week [WR-21-46]. Speaking anonymously, three cabinet ministers then told the Associated Press that, in a meeting in late October before the COP26 began, Bolsonaro and several of his ministers decided to wait until after the conference to release the numbers (Leite publicly denies having had knowledge of these figures prior to last week). The Inpe’s report, now available online, is dated 27 October.

From a reputational point of view, the damage is severe. European diplomats speaking to Reuters expressed “shock and disappointment”. Cautious hopes at Brazil’s COP26 climate commitments have been dashed as its targets look unattainable, even if there were a political will to reach them. “The era of treating Bolsonaro’s government as a credible partner capable of reversing the catastrophic damage in the Amazon is now over,” writes Brian Winter, a member of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas and editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.

Leite appears to still be fighting a losing battle to salvage Brazil’s credibility on environmental efforts. The deforestation numbers are “unacceptable”, and Brazil will be more “forceful” in its efforts to fight illegal forest clearing, Leite said in a press conference on 22 November. He is not supported in this approach by his boss. Speaking during his weekly Facebook Live address on 19 November, Bolsonaro dismissed the latest news on deforestation as lies propagated by individuals who are intent on harming Brazil.

Soya producers side with Bolsonaro

On 23 November, Brazil’s national association of soya producers (Aprosoja) issued a strongly worded statement criticising proposed legislation recently announced by the European Union (EU), which would introduce tougher regulations for EU importers of certain commodities, including soya and beef, as part of the EU’s efforts to end deforestation in its supply chain. Aprosoja’s criticisms that the EU is disguising trade protectionism as environmental concern, disregarding Brazilian sovereignty, and acting like a colonial power, as well as its claims that Brazil already does more than enough to protect its forests, echo the discourse favoured by President Bolsonaro on these issues.

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