LatinNews Daily - 11 August 2020 |
Main Briefing |
TRINIDAD & TOBAGO: Rowley claims victory in general election |
On 10 August Trinidad & Tobago’s Prime Minister Keith Rowley claimed victory for the ruling People’s National Movement (PNM) in a general election which took place the same day. Analysis: With official results yet to be declared in the twin-island republic, Rowley proclaimed victory after citing initial results which gave the PNM 22 of the 41 seats in the House of Representatives, to 19 for the opposition United National Congress (UNC) led by former prime minister, Kamla Persad-Bissessar (2010-2015). Despite a challenging economic scenario, even before the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic, and a worsening security situation, the government’s handling of the pandemic, which has received international plaudits, no doubt served as a boost. The UNC, however, has sent mixed messages as to whether it accepts the results, suggesting these could be challenged.
Looking Ahead: According to the local media, the UNC conceded defeat at the party’s election headquarters last night. However, Persad-Bissessar is calling for a recount in three marginal constituencies, telling her supporters that “I am not giving any concessionary speech. I am not conceding”, and insisting that only once these are done “can we concede or claim victory”. |
Andean |
VENEZUELA: Electoral process off to volatile start |
On 10 August the formal registration process began for political parties seeking to participate in Venezuela’s legislative elections on 6 December. Analysis: The majority of the country’s opposition parties will not be registering to participate in what they have described as an electoral farce, devoid of a level playing field, overseen by a national electoral council (CNE) firmly under the thumb of the de facto government led by Nicolás Maduro, and without international observers. But the Maduro government is trying to confer legitimacy on the elections by intervening in the main political parties and placing them under the control of internal dissidents prepared to take part in the elections. There were clashes outside the Caracas headquarters of one of these parties, Acción Democrática (AD), between rival supporters yesterday.
Looking Ahead: The electoral registration process will last for 10 days, concluding on 19 August. |
In brief: Colombia and Israel launch free trade agreement |
* Colombia and Israel have launched a new bilateral free trade agreement (FTA) during a videoconference between Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and Colombia’s President Iván Duque. Under the FTA 99% of Colombia’s industrial exports and 97% of Colombia’s agriculture exports will enter Israel free from tariffs, and tariffs for the remaining exports will be gradually lifted over the next five years. The agreement also aims to attract Israeli investment to Colombia in areas such as irrigation, agriculture, artificial intelligence, and robotics. The Colombian government will open an iNNpulsa office (the government’s entrepreneurship and innovation agency) in Israel later this year to promote collaboration between the two countries in areas such as agriculture technology, cybersecurity, health technology, educational technology and financial technology. The office will also promote cooperation between the governments, academics and business sectors of both countries. In 2019, Colombia exported US$366m of goods to Israel, of which only 8% were non-mining goods such as coffee, flowers, and biscuits. |
Brazil |
BRAZIL: First state schools re-open amid criticisms |
On 10 August, state-run schools in Manaus, the capital of Amazonas state, re-opened, the first public schools in Brazil to do so since the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic forced their closure five months ago. Analysis: Despite the uncontrolled coronavirus outbreak in Brazil, various sectors of the economy have been gradually reopening since May, and the country’s local authorities now face the dilemma of whether, and how to, reopen schools for in-person classes. With the United Nations (UN) warning of a “generational catastrophe” due to months of lost education on the one hand, and the World Health Organization (WHO) urging against reopening schools in areas where the pandemic is not under control on the other, the decision is fraught with difficulties, as exemplified by the situation in Manaus.
Looking Ahead: The return to in-person classes in other states remains uncertain, with recent judicial rulings suspending the reopening of private schools in Brasília and Rio de Janeiro, while the state government of São Paulo has delayed the reopening of public and private schools until 7 October. |
In brief: Chinese demand sustained Brazil’s exports, says Guedes |
* Brazil’s economy minister, Paulo Guedes, has said that the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic has had practically “zero” effect on Brazil’s exports, thanks to sustained demand from Asian countries, notably China. Speaking during an event organised by the Frente Parlamentar Agropecuária (FPA) agribusiness bloc in Brazil's federal congress, Guedes said that Asian consumption had compensated a drop in demand in the US, Europe and Argentina, and allowed Brazilian exports to close the first six months of 2020 at a level almost unchanged from last year. China accounted for 34% of the US$121.3bn Brazil exported between January and July 2020. “It’s very clear for the entire world that Brazil has a strong advantage in the agribusiness sector”, Guedes said, noting that Brazil is turning to new markets in Asia and the Middle East. |
Central America & Caribbean |
In brief: Business lobby urges resolution to Panama-Costa Rica trade spat |
* Panama’s chamber of commerce, industry & agriculture (CCIAP) has urged Costa Rican and Panamanian authorities to establish equal trade conditions and find a way to certify food producers in both countries “as quickly as possible”. The demands follow an announcement on 6 August by Costa Rica’s government that it had notified the World Trade Organization (WTO) of what it described as Panama’s decision to “block” the entry of animal products from 19 Costa Rican livestock producers on 10 July. For its part, Panama’s trade ministry issued a response on 8 August rejecting its neighbour’s claims of a block, stating instead that Costa Rican producers had failed to comply with food security requirements since these expired on 30 June despite continuous extensions since 2017. These producers have not been inspected for over six years, it added. |
Mexico |
MEXICO: López Obrador accused of diversionary tactics |
On 10 August Mexico’s former president, Felipe Calderón Hinojosa (2006-2012), accused President Andrés Manuel López Obrador of seeking to distract public attention from his government’s failings in the face of the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic by accusing him of having led a narco-state. Analysis: Calderón’s accusations point to a growing political confrontation that looks set to dominate next year’s mid-term federal legislative elections. The growing public perception that the López Obrador administration has mishandled the pandemic has increased the chances that the ruling Movimiento Regeneración Nacional (Morena) party could lose its comfortable congressional majority in the polls. It provides ample ammunition for the political opposition to attack the government and Morena. López Obrador seems to be to pre-empting this by accusing Calderón and his previous Partido Acción Nacional (PAN) administration of colluding with organised crime. But in Calderón, Lopez Obrador appears to have found a formidable political foe.
Looking Ahead: While Calderón is in the process of registering his new México Libre party in order to take part in next year’s polls, the movement is already seen as the main electoral threat to Morena and López Obrador. |
In brief: Mexico proposes exporting natural gas to Asia |
* The Mexican government led by President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has proposed exporting natural gas to Asia, as a solution to surplus gas resulting from a conflict involving supposedly fraudulent contracts for the construction of gas pipelines. According to López Obrador, contracts for the construction of gas pipelines and the purchase of natural gas from the US were signed by previous governments with the aim of supplying up to 20 thermoelectric plants managed by Mexico's state-run electricity firm (CFE) – but the plants were never built. “We have to figure out what to do with the gas, we haven’t ruled out that we could get bids from companies so that they can treat the gas, freeze it and sell it to Asia”, López Obrador said in response to a question during his morning press briefing. |
Southern Cone |
CHILE: Lorry drivers threaten strike over Mapuche attacks |
On 10 August, Chile’s Interior Minister Víctor Pérez met with representatives from lorry drivers’ unions, some of whom are threatening strikes unless the government takes action to prevent arson attacks on lorries by Mapuche indigenous activists. Analysis: The government led by President Sebastián Piñera will be keen to avoid a strike which would exacerbate the already dire economic situation, but it must also walk a fine line to avoid further aggravating tensions with the Mapuche. After a flare-up in the long-running conflict earlier this month, the government is facing competing calls for a tougher crackdown on Mapuche insurgents from lorry drivers and local businesses on the one hand and appeals for dialogue from indigenous organisations and the United Nations on the other.
Looking Ahead: The stakes are further raised by a reported deterioration in the health of Mapuche prisoner Celestino Córdova, who has now been on hunger strike for 100 days. Hunger strikes by Córdova and other Mapuche prisoners were a major catalyst in the recent arson attacks on government buildings. |
In brief: Argentina’s YPF sees hefty losses in Q2 |
* Argentina’s state-owned oil company, Yacimientos Petrolíferos Fiscales (YPF), has published its earnings report for the second quarter of 2020, which show the company made a net income loss of Ar$85.05bn (US$1.17bn). The loss compares with a net gain of Ar$6.35bn in Q1 2020 and a contraction of Ar$2.33bn for the same April to June quarter in 2019. In a statement, YPF indicated that the result includes a net operating loss of AR$36bn before taking into consideration a reduction in share price. YPF said it had been negotiating a “complex economic and financial situation” that had been exacerbated by the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic. It also reported a “nonrecurring charge” of some Ar$57bn due to the fall in its gas share prices caused by the global oil and gas price shock earlier this year. |