LatinNews Daily - 03 June 2021 |
Main Briefing |
NICARAGUA: Prominent opposition figure excluded from presidential race |
On 2 June a court order was made public, which excludes high-profile Nicaraguan opposition presidential pre-candidate, Cristiana Chamorro Barrios, from taking part in the 7 November general election. Analysis: The order against Chamorro, dated 1 June, is in relation to alleged money laundering and other crimes. Chamorro, who yesterday was also placed under house arrest, has rejected the charges as trumped up and says she is being politically persecuted. The daughter of former president, Violeta Chamorro (1990-1997), Chamorro Barrios is believed to be among the most popular opposition rivals to President Daniel Ortega, who is seeking a further term for the ruling Frente Sandinista de Liberación Nacional (FSLN) in the November election. Her arrest and exclusion from the election has been widely condemned by the international community and follows other signs that the Ortega government wants to undermine the electoral process. These include the recent decision by the electoral authorities (CSE) to strip two opposition parties of their legal status; and contentious electoral reforms and appointment of the new CSE. All of this is piling the pressure on Organization of American States (OAS) Secretary General Luis Almagro to make good last year’s threat to request that OAS members declare a “rupture of the democratic order” in Nicaragua, which could result in the suspension or termination of its member state status.
Looking Ahead: With members of the international community such as the US and European Union (EU) having previously sanctioned the Ortega government and its allies over democracy-related concerns, the latest electoral developments are fanning demands for action from the OAS. Yesterday Coalición Nacional (CN), one of the two main opposition groupings in Nicaragua, issued a statement calling on the OAS to declare a “rupture of the democratic order” in Nicaragua. It cited the failure by the government to pass electoral reforms “in line with international standards” by 31 May; an OAS October 2020 resolution on Nicaragua had called for these to be in place “no later than May 2021”. |
Andean |
COLOMBIA-VENEZUELA: Venezuelan anger at ‘unilateral’ border opening |
On 2 June, Venezuela’s foreign ministry rejected Colombia’s “unilateral” decision to reopen border crossings between the two countries. Analysis: The Colombia-Venezuela border has been closed since March 2020 to limit the spread of the coronavirus (Covid-19), and any coordinated attempts to reopen it will be complicated by the severing of diplomatic relations between the two countries in February 2019. Reopening the border is seen as paramount by many Venezuelans who rely on travel to Colombia to obtain supplies, and who have been exposed to extortion when travelling via unofficial border crossings.
Looking Ahead: Venezuela has given no indication of a timeframe for opening its side of the border. In reality, border crossings are likely to resume apace, with travellers registering on the Colombian side and illegally entering and exiting Venezuela. |
In brief: Ecuador sets out plan of compensation payments to French oil company |
* Ecuador’s attorney general, Íñigo Salvador Crespo, has set out a timeline for the government to transfer US$374.3m to the French oil company Perenco, which he said would be completed within 60 days. The payment relates to a 1 June ruling by the World Bank’s International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID), which ordered the state to compensate Perenco for a 2007 decree by former president, Rafael Correa (2007-2017), that increased state control of oil surpluses from 50% to 99%. Following the ICSID’s decision, President Guillermo Lasso said that “the Ecuadorean state will respect and honour its international commitments”. Lasso’s acceptance of the compensation payments demonstrates a change of course from the legal challenges mounted by his predecessor, Lenín Moreno (2017-2021), and will be intended to demonstrate his government’s respect for international court rulings and regain investor confidence. |
Brazil |
BRAZIL: Bolsonaro touts achievements as pandemic resurges |
On 2 June, Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro delivered a televised address in which he outlined his government’s supposed achievements, notably on the economic front. Analysis: Bolsonaro’s speech comes at a time of political weakness, as his government’s mishandling of the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic is being subjected to scrutiny in a commission of parliamentary inquiry (CPI) in the senate, and public discontent has recently translated into street protests. The national address was seemingly an attempt to make the most of the economy’s strong performance to win back some public support.
Looking Ahead: Bolsonaro’s speech was met by ‘panelaços’ (pots-and-pans protests) in at least a dozen major cities across the country, suggesting that rejection of the president remains strong and is likely to persist if warnings of a third Covid-19 wave prove to be true. |
In brief: Brazil’s industrial production shrinks in April |
* Brazil’s national statistics institute (Ibge) has released the latest figures on the industrial sector, which show that industrial production shrank 1.3% in April compared with March. This is the third monthly contraction in industrial production, and brings production levels back below pre-coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic levels. The Ibge’s André Macedo notes that growth in industrial production had already been slowing since the second half of last year. “With the start of 2021, the resurgence of the pandemic, and all the effects that this brings, the industrial sector showed a very evident decrease in its production pace. This is clear not only from the negative results, but also from the greater spread [across different activities] of this rate of decline,” Macedo said. In year-on-year terms, industrial production grew 34.7% compared with April 2020, when the partial shutdown of the economy due to the pandemic led to the biggest fall in industrial production on record. |
Central America & Caribbean |
In brief: Panama’s economic activity continues to shrink |
* Panama’s national statistics institute (Inec) has released figures which show that the country’s monthly indicator of economic activity (Imae) posted a 6.03% year-on-year contraction in March. Inec says that this reflects the continued effects of the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic. However, it cites as sectors which posted a good performance: exploitation of mines, fishing, private health services, and public administration. Panama’s GDP contracted by 17.9% in 2020. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) last month forecast that Panama’s economy will grow 12% in 2021 as “economic activities recover, boosted by the vaccination rollout and full-scale copper production, a recovery in private investment, and a large carryover effect”. Over the medium term, growth is expected to stabilise at its potential growth rate of 5%. |
Mexico |
MEXICO: López Obrador reiterates accusations of US political interference |
On 2 June Mexico’s President Andrés Manuel López Obrador again accused the US government of financing local organisations that he says are opposed to his government. Analysis: The López Obrador government has already sent a formal diplomatic protest note to the US complaining about this and demanding an explanation, which has yet to receive any response. By raising the issue again López Obrador may be trying to shore up support for the ruling Movimiento Regeneración Nacional (Morena) party ahead of the 6 June midterm federal legislative, state, and municipal elections. But coming just days ahead of an official visit by US Vice President Kamala Harris to Mexico, the accusations could become a source of diplomatic tensions and raise US concerns about democracy in Mexico.
Looking Ahead: Harris is due to arrive in Mexico on 7 June. López Obrador has said that he does not intend to address this issue with her because it is not part of the set agenda. But she may decide to broach the matter herself and remind López Obrador of the US’s commitment to consolidating democracy around the world by supporting civil society groups that hold their governments to account. |
In brief: Mexican oil export price rises |
* Mexico’s state-owned oil company, Pemex, has reported that the price of the Mexican oil blend has reached US$65.36 per barrel after increasing by 1.49% the previous day. This is the highest level since September 2019. |
Southern Cone |
CHILE: Country battles surge in Covid-19 cases |
On 2 June, Chile’s health ministry published its latest epidemiological report, which revealed that the number of active coronavirus (Covid-19) cases in the Santiago Metropolitan Region (RM) has reached a new high for the year, matching levels last seen during the first wave in June 2020. Analysis: Chile is facing another surge in Covid-19 infections despite having one of the most successful vaccine rollouts in the world. New daily cases have been climbing again, although daily deaths remain well below the levels seen during the first wave in June-July last year, raising questions over what is driving this surge given the country’s high vaccination rate. To date, 42.3% of the population has been fully vaccinated against Covid-19, which places Chile within the top five most vaccinated countries globally.
Looking Ahead: Piñera did not rule out the possibility of tightening restrictions and withdrawing the mobility pass if necessary, saying last night that “as always, we are ready to re-evaluate everything in accordance with the data and the evolution of the pandemic”. |
In brief: Paraguay’s beef exports soar |
* Paraguay’s national service for livestock health and quality (Senacsa) has released new figures which show that the country’s beef exports totalled 142,576 tonnes (t) in the first five months of 2021, a new record for the period. The exports were worth US$638.7m. According to the Senacsa figures, over this period, Chile was the main export market for Paraguayan beef, accounting for 56 t, followed by Russia (36 t), Brazil (13 t), and Taiwan (12.5 t). |