LatinNews Daily - 11 November 2021 |
Main Briefing |
BOLIVIA: Anti-government protests intensify |
On 10 November the anti-government protests that began in Bolivia on 8 November intensified, with President Luis Arce cancelling a trip to Potosí department due to the unrest. Analysis: The protests are the most severe unrest in Bolivia since the arrest of former president Jeanine Áñez (2019-2020) in March, and are showing no sign of abating. The driving force behind the demonstrations is ostensibly a financial crimes law that the opposition claims could pave the way to a judicial crackdown on the government’s opponents. However, many believe that the law is serving as a pretext to draw large numbers of protesters onto the streets, with the ultimate aim of forcing Arce from office.
Looking Ahead: There is currently little sign of the unrest abating, and even a repeal of Law 1386 would be unlikely to calm the waters in the long-term. Many analysts support Arce’s view that the questioned law is serving as a useful pretext for protests, and that the ultimate objective is to remove him from office. If anything, repealing the law could give momentum to the protesters and inspire further mass demonstrations. |
Andean |
In brief: Peru issues first social bond |
* Peru has successfully issued €1bn (US$1.15bn) of “social bonds”, according to a statement by the economy and finance ministry (MEF). These will mature in 2036, with a coupon rate of 1.95%, and are Peru’s first ever social bonds. The MEF added that the funds raised from the bond auction will go towards social spending on supporting vulnerable groups; improving access to adequate housing, education, and essential health services; and supporting small-, micro-, and medium-sized businesses in order to reduce unemployment. |
Brazil |
BRAZIL: Sergio Moro enters political fray |
On 10 November Brazil’s Sergio Moro, the former judge who presided over the ‘Lava Jato’ corruption cases and a former justice minister (2019-2020) in President Jair Bolsonaro’s government, formally entered politics by affiliating himself to the right-wing Podemos (PODE) party. Analysis: Moro, who rose to fame for his work on the Lava Jato cases, receded from the public eye after his acrimonious departure from Bolsonaro’s government in April 2020. A divisive figure and reviled by the Left due to his role in sentencing former president Lula da Silva (2003-2011) to prison, Moro has lost some of his shine amid signs that he acted with political bias. But with a general election due in October 2022, the former judge is positioning himself as a potential presidential pre-candidate for the so-called ‘third way’, the sought-for alternative to both Bolsonaro and Lula.
Looking Ahead: Moro benefits from name recognition at national level, which will help him in the earlier polls. But, at this stage, few believe that the former judge stands much of a chance: he lacks political experience or stature, faces strong rejection levels, and his focus on anti-corruption will not resonate with much of the electorate, which is reeling from the economic effects of the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic. |
In brief: Brazil’s inflation continues to rise |
* Brazil’s national statistics institute (Ibge) has released the latest figures for the consumer price index (IPCA), which show that inflation grew 1.25% in October, the highest figure for the month since 2002. This brings inflation in the 12 months to October to 10.67%, above the 10.25% annual inflation rate recorded in September. Inflation in the transport category (2.62%), largely due to rising fuel prices, had the biggest impact on overall inflation in October, followed by rising prices in the food & drink category (1.17%). |
Central America & Caribbean |
HAITI: Stark warnings over impact of insecurity and fuel shortages |
On 10 November the US embassy in Haiti’s Port-au-Prince posted an alert urging US citizens to “make plans to depart Haiti now via commercial means”. Analysis: The alert cites “the current security situation and infrastructure challenges” – a reference to the security crisis, which has intensified since the July assassination of President Jovenel Moïse (2017-2021) and recently made headlines following the mass kidnapping of 17 North American missionaries (who have yet to be released) as well as gangs’ blockading of fuel supplies which began last month over demands for Prime Minister Ariel Henry to resign, causing massive shortages.
Looking Ahead: Despite appeals from the likes of Dominican President Luis Abinader for the international community to intervene, the US continues to rule this out. During a two-day visit to Haiti this week, Todd Robinson, US assistant secretary for the Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs, was cited by the media as acknowledging the gravity of the threat posed by gangs but said that “at the end of the day, it’s not going to be the international community that comes to Haiti’s rescue. It’s going to be Haitians.” |
In brief: Costa Rica optimistic on tourism recovery |
* Costa Rica’s tourism institute (ICT), a government body, has released new figures which show that tourist arrivals to the country via air in October 2021 totalled 91,292 - 67% of the amount received in October 2019 before the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic struck. The same figures show that in the first ten months of 2021, tourist arrivals via air totalled 927,482 of which most (647,765) were from the US, followed by Spain (31,444); Mexico (27,917); France (29,290); and Switzerland (14,092). In the first ten months of 2021, Costa Rica received 978,676 tourists in total. While these figures are still below pre-pandemic levels, ICT remained optimistic of further recovery due to the fact that the high tourism season is traditionally in November and December. |
Mexico |
MEXICO: López Obrador defends choice of new anti-corruption czar |
On 10 November Mexico’s President Andrés Manuel López Obrador defended his choice of Pablo Gómez Álvarez as the new head of the government’s financial intelligence unit (UIF). Analysis: A federal deputy for the ruling left-wing Movimiento Regeneración Nacional (Morena), Gómez was appointed earlier this week to replace Santiago Nieto, who was forced to resign following fierce criticism over an extravagant wedding which took place in Guatemala. His appointment has been rejected by some opposition figures who complain that he lacks the technical profile for the role and could use the post to attack opponents. These concerns come as the government continues to face complaints of politicising justice.
Looking Ahead: Some are hopeful that Gomez’s appointment could prove beneficial in terms of a better working relationship with federal attorney general Alejandro Gertz who reportedly had frosty relations with Nieto at times, for example over complaints that the former UIF had failed to provide sufficient evidence in relation to particular cases. |
In brief: Mexico’s lower chamber approves 2022 budget |
* Mexico’s chamber of deputies has approved in general terms the federal budget for 2022, with 274 votes in favour, 219 against, and three abstentions. The budget proposes M$7.08trn (US$345bn) in spending, an 8.6% increase on the budget approved for 2021. The so-called ‘programmable expenditure’ (relating to healthcare, public security, and investment) totals M$5.24trn relates to so-called programmable spending (encompassing healthcare, public security, and investment), representing a 9.6% increase compared to the 2021 budget, in real terms. The remaining M$1.84trn relates to ‘non-programmable expenses’ spending, relating to the fulfilment of the government’s legal obligations. A total of 1,994 reservations were lodged regarding the budget, and the chamber of deputies will begin voting on these particulars today (11 November). |
Southern Cone |
CHILE: Piñera says senate will vote against impeachment |
In his first comments after the chamber of deputies voted to impeach him, Chile’s President Sebastián Piñera said on 10 November that the case against him was based on “false facts” and would be thrown out by the senate. Analysis: President Piñera said the accusations against him, based on the leaked ‘Pandora Papers’ and purporting to show he had a conflict of interests in the sale of family-held shares in a mining company to a close friend, had “no basis, neither in fact nor in law”. Piñera was also highly critical of the 22-hour debate on the impeachment vote in the chamber of deputies, which include an extended filibuster to allow a key deputy to emerge from obligatory coronavirus (Covid-19) isolation and cast the determining in-person vote in favour of impeachment.
Looking Ahead: The latest batch of opinion polls show Kast consolidating his first-round lead. A poll by Activa published on 6 November showed Kast with 22% support, followed by 18% for Boric, 11% for Democracia Cristiana’s Yasna Provoste, and 8% for Sebastián Sichel. |
In brief: ‘Blue dollar’ reaches a high in Argentina |
* Argentina’s secretary for domestic trade, Roberto Feletti, has said that the rise in ‘blue dollar’ – the local black market exchange rate for US dollars – would not impact on food or medicines prices. Last month the government imposed a 90-day price freeze on 1,432 products, including food, drink, and other key components of popular consumption. His comments follow reports that the ‘blue dollar’ was selling at an all-time high of Ar$205. This comes just days ahead of the 14 November legislative elections in which the government led by President Alberto Fernández is widely expected to lose seats. |