LatinNews Daily - 19 November 2021 |
Main Briefing |
MEXICO: North American leaders pledge to work together |
On 18 November, Mexico’s President Andrés Manuel López Obrador met US President Joe Biden and Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, at the first North American Leaders’ Summit in five years, hosted in Washington DC. Analysis: The re-launch of this trilateral relationship (also dubbed the ‘Three Amigos’) after a five-year hiatus is testimony to Biden’s efforts to repair the damage caused by his predecessor Donald Trump’s (2017-2021) aggressive and go-it-alone approach to foreign relations. Now bound by the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) on regional trade, the successor to the defunct North American Free Trade Agreement (Nafta), the three North American leaders sought to display their friendly relations - but some key points of contention remain.
Looking Ahead: Testing the US and Mexico’s renewed pledge to “prioritise respect for and the guarantee of [migrants’] human rights” as stated in the trilateral joint statement, a new US-bound caravan of some 3,000 migrants reportedly set off from Southern Mexico yesterday. |
Andean |
VENEZUELA: Campaigning closes ahead of regional elections |
On 18 November, campaigning closed ahead of Venezuela’s 21 November regional and municipal elections. Analysis: These elections will mark the first time that the opposition has participated in an election since 2017, when it began a policy of boycotting votes in protest at alleged electoral fraud and political violence committed by armed government supporters. The abandonment of the boycott strategy is a recognition that it has enabled the ruling Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela (PSUV) to dominate every level of government, whilst failing to delegitimise President Nicolás Maduro’s administration in the eyes of enough voters to trigger sustained mass protests. The election campaign has seen greatly diminished violence and repression compared with previous election cycles, and the presence of international electoral observers has raised opposition hopes.
Looking Ahead: Voter turnout will be key to the opposition’s chances. The local pollster Datanálisis predicted last month that an abstention rate of 55% or higher could see the ruling PSUV-led coalition win 18 of the 23 gubernatorial races. Datanálisis predicts uneven turnout in different states, of between around 40% and 70% of eligible voters. |
In brief: Peru raises growth forecast |
* Peru’s economy and finance minister, Pedro Francke, has raised the government’s GDP growth forecast for 2021 to 13%, up from the previous prediction of 10.5%. Francke said that the figure was “quite positive,” but added that a slow recovery in employment is preventing the country from bouncing back faster from the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic. He said that a planned tax reform, the details of which have not yet been announced, “will be very important to consolidate private and public investment and to have a strong, sustainable growth path over the next few years.” |
Brazil |
BRAZIL: Annual deforestation soars |
On 18 November, Brazil’s national space research institute (Inpe) released its annual Prodes deforestation data, which shows that Amazon deforestation has soared to its highest level in 15 years. Analysis: The numbers are dire. Preliminary monthly figures had indicated that deforestation might have fallen this year compared with the previous one, while the Brazilian government has just committed to ending illegal deforestation by 2028 as part of pledges made at the COP26 climate conference – a target which appears difficult to attain right now.
Looking Ahead: With the Amazon vital to the global fight against climate change, and such a level of forest loss flying in the face of Brazil’s recent COP26 pledges, a reaction from the international community is to be expected. |
In brief: Brazil signs agreements with Qatar |
* The Brazilian government has announced that President Jair Bolsonaro signed a series of agreements with Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, the Emir of Qatar, while in Doha, the Qatari capital, in the areas of investment, economy, defence, energy, and sport. The government gave no further detail on the agreements, while noting that trade between Brazil and Qatar totalled US$774.7m last year. Bolsonaro’s visit to Doha concluded a tour which included a visit to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain, with the aim of drumming up investment. Few concrete announcements have been made, but on social media, Bolsonaro said that “we are bringing good results to Brazil from this trip”, mentioning discussions on tourism in the Amazon region. |
Central America & Caribbean |
NICARAGUA: New report ups pressure on Ortega over human rights |
On 18 November, 15 Nicaraguan human rights organisations presented a report which accused President Daniel Ortega of crimes against humanity and called for the installation of international independent fact-finding mission in Nicaragua. Analysis: Ortega has faced similar accusations in the past related to his government’s crackdown on its opponents following unrest which erupted in April 2018. This is the first time that a report, which was endorsed by the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR) of the Organisation of American States (OAS), has included the period up to and including the recent November general election which was widely slammed as undemocratic. It is likely to subject the Ortega government, which is already facing the prospect of international isolation, to further condemnation.
Looking Ahead: The government, which in 2018 expelled the OAS Interdisciplinary Group of Independent Experts (GIEI) and the IACHR’s Special Monitoring Mechanism for Nicaragua (Meseni), which was sent to monitor the human rights situation there, is unlikely to agree to the request for the international fact-finding mission. However, the report will pile further pressure on the government over the human rights situation in Nicaragua. |
In brief: Costa Rica hails fiscal progress but cites room for improvement |
* Costa Rica’s finance ministry has released new figures which show the country’s fiscal deficit to October was ¢1.54trn (US$2.4bn), representing 3.96% of GDP. This compares with ¢2.5trn registered at the same point in 2020, which was equivalent to 6.91% of GDP. As of October 2021, public debt was ¢27.5trn (71.03% of GDP). The finance ministry said that these results were favourable but insufficient to ensure financial stability in the long term, and called for the approval of initiatives currently under discussion in the legislature (such as the public employment bill introducing a single pay scale and eliminating other salary components). The finance ministry also highlighted that interest payments on debt reached ¢1.65trn (4.26% of GDP) – the highest of the last 15 years. The government has previously said that the fiscal adjustment outlined in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) agreement approved by the legislature in July would be “transcendental” to reducing this. Last year, following the arrival of the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic, Costa Rica posted a fiscal deficit of 8.1% of GDP, and a public debt of 67.5% of GDP. |
Mexico |
In brief: Mexico seeks agreement with Canada to upgrade hydroelectric plants |
* The Mexican government led by President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has said that it will seek an agreement with Canada for Canada’s state-owned company Hydro-Québec to upgrade Mexico's network of hydro-electric plants. The announcement by foreign minister Marcelo Ebrard followed a meeting which took place on the side-lines of the North American Leaders’ Summit which took place in the US involving US President Joe Biden, Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and President López Obrador. The possibility of Canada assisting Mexico in this area was floated in 2018 when the Mexican government first announced it would seek Canada’s help in modernising 60 hydroelectric projects. |
Southern Cone |
CHILE: Presidential elections look like a two-horse race |
On 18 November campaigns closed ahead of Chile’s 21 November general election. Analysis: The elections are widely seen as the most important turning point in Chilean politics since the restoration of democracy in 1990. They are expected to end a three-decade period in which traditional centre-right and centre-left coalitions have alternated in power and dominated Chilean politics. They come after the mass street protests of 2019 which focused attention on inequality and triggered a process of constitutional reform.
Looking Ahead: With a still-large number of undecided voters, surprises are still possible in the first round, although the balance of probabilities still points to a second-round contest between Kast and Boric. |
In brief: Chile’s GDP posts strong Q3 growth |
* Chile’s central bank (BCCh) has released new figures which show that the country’s GDP grew 17.2% in the third quarter of 2021 compared with the same quarter in 2020. The BCCh report noted that this stems from increased opening up of the economy following the restrictions imposed to control the coronavirus (Covid-19); economic measures taken to help households and companies; partial withdrawals from pension funds; and a low basis of comparison due the sharp drop in activity as a result of the pandemic. According to the report, economic activity was driven by services (personal services were up 24.5% and business services up 20.7%), while trade and construction also posted strong growth of 29.0% and 39.4% respectively. However, mining and the agricultural-forestry sectors posted declines of 3.8% and 4.0% respectively. According to seasonally-adjusted figures, economic activity in Q3 grew 4.9% compared with the previous quarter. |