LatinNews Daily - 23 November 2021 |
Main Briefing |
EL SALVADOR: NGO raids fan human rights and democracy concerns |
On 22 November, El Salvador’s attorney general’s office (FGR) and the police (PNC) carried out raids on seven NGOs in El Salvador. Analysis: The raids, which the FGR claims were in relation to a corruption investigation, will fuel existing human rights and democracy concerns regarding the perceived authoritarianism of President Nayib Bukele and his Nuevas Ideas (NI) government. These concerns have intensified since May when the new NI-controlled legislature took up its seats and fired the head of the FGR, Raúl Melara, along with the supreme court (SCJ)’s constitutional chamber (SC) (all Bukele critics), installing government loyalists. The raids come as local and international human rights organisations are already on the alert over a proposed foreign agents law, which these groups compare with legislation passed last year in Nicaragua which shuttered NGOs and was widely condemned as repressive.
Looking Ahead: The raids and democracy concerns are likely to place a further strain on relations with the US, which are already at a low point after President Bukele accused it of financing the political opposition and seeking to facilitate the rupture of the NI parliamentary bloc. Yesterday US ambassador to El Salvador Jean Manes told journalists that she was returning to her position as civilian deputy commander at US Southern Command. She was cited as saying that the Salvadorean government had no interest in improving relations, reportedly questioning “Why am I going to stay here if we don’t have a counterpart at this time?...When El Salvador wants to talk, our doors are always open.” |
Andean |
COLOMBIA: Zuluaga nominated as Uribista candidate for 2022 election |
On 22 November, Óscar Iván Zuluaga won the ruling right-wing Centro Democrático (CD) party’s nomination for Colombia’s May 2022 presidential election. Analysis: Zuluaga has some serious ground to make up if he is to become Colombia’s next president. The CD’s image has been tarnished in the eyes of many voters by the violent crackdown on anti-government protesters earlier this year, and longstanding inequalities exacerbated by the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic appear to have driven up support for the leftist frontrunner Gustavo Petro (Colombia Humana).
Looking Ahead: Petro continues to hold a striking lead in the polls with 22% of the intended vote, according to a 13 November poll by the Centro Nacional de Consultoría (CNC). Zuluaga only scored 3% of voting intentions in that poll, although he can expect to receive votes from supporters of his main rival for the CD nomination, María Fernanda Cabal, who polled 4%. |
In brief: Peru’s GDP continues to recover |
* Peru’s national statistics institute (Inei) has released the latest quarterly GDP figures, showing that the country’s economy expanded by 11.4% in Q3 2021, compared with Q3 2020. GDP also increased by 2.8% relative to the preceding quarter. This is the first quarterly GDP update to cover the administration of President Pedro Castillo, who took office in late-July. Inei noted that the year-on-year growth was driven by a 24.1% increase in gross fixed capital formation, an 11.8% increase in household consumption, and a 6.6% increase in government consumption. Inei also highlighted the economic recovery of Peru’s trading partners from the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic as a key factor in the GDP growth, noting that exports of goods and services increased by 9.2% in Q3 2021 compared with Q3 2020. |
Brazil |
BRAZIL: Rio police face questions after deadly operation |
On 22 November, the public prosecutor’s office in Brazil’s Rio de Janeiro state (MPRJ) announced that it is launching an investigation into a police operation carried out in the Complexo do Salgueiro favela in the municipality of São Gonçalo a day earlier, and which seemingly left over a dozen people dead. Analysis: Local residents found at least eight bodies in a mangrove after an operation led by the state military police’s (PM) special operations unit (Bope) in the Complexo do Salgueiro on 21 November, and there have since been reports of further victims. The police say the deaths were the result of a shootout after they were met by heavy fire from criminals; locals say the police carried out a massacre and that the bodies of the victims bore signs of torture.
Looking Ahead: Brazil’s police are rarely brought to justice for the abuses they commit while on duty – following the Jacarezinho massacre in May, just two police officers have been charged by the MPRJ, and none have yet been convicted. |
In brief: Forecast for Brazil’s 2021 inflation in double digits |
*Brazil’s central bank (BCB) has released the latest issue of its Focus bulletin, a weekly survey of private sector economists and analysts, in which the country’s inflation is now forecast to close the year at 10.12%. Inflation forecasts for 2021 have been revised upwards for 33 consecutive weeks, and this is the first time that they have passed double digits; inflation was predicted to close 2021 at 9.77% in the previous Focus issue. Meanwhile, GDP growth forecasts are being revised downwards, with the analysts surveyed by the BCB now expecting 4.80% growth this year, down from a forecast of 4.88% a week earlier. |
Central America & Caribbean |
In brief: BCIE under pressure over assistance to Nicaragua |
* A group of over 20 Nicaraguan opposition organisations including the main opposition groups Alianza Cívica por la Justicia y Democracia (ACJD) and Unidad Nacional Azul y Blanco (UNAB), have signed a letter urging the Central American development bank (BCIE) to condition its assistance to Nicaragua on respect for human rights. The letter urges the BCIE to condition future assistance on the “liberation of political prisoners, an immediate end of all repression against the media and citizens and the fulfilment of resolutions by the Organization of American States (OAS) which establish minimum conditions to hold free and democratic elections”, among other things. It follows mounting human rights concerns following the 7 November general election, which was criticised by the international community, including the OAS – this criticism led President Daniel Ortega’s government to announce it was leaving the OAS. According to a report published last month by investigative media Confidencial, the Nicaraguan government received over US$2.29bn from the BCIE between January 2017 and June 2021. |
Mexico |
MEXICO: López Obrador declares megaprojects issue of national security |
On 22 November, Mexico’s President Andrés Manuel López Obrador issued a decree which declares infrastructure projects carried out by the federal government an issue of national security. Analysis: In practice, this decree means that López Obrador’s flagship – but controversial – ‘Fourth Transformation’ infrastructure projects such as the Tren Maya railway line in the Yucatán peninsula, the Felipe Ángeles international airport in the Estado de México, and the Dos Bocas oil refinery in Tabasco state are considered issues of national security, and can thus be pushed through with fewer obstacles and less oversight. With a number of these projects already under the contentious responsibility of the military, this latest move by López Obrador will fan concerns about failure to heed institutional processes and lack of transparency.
Looking Ahead: With a former supreme court (SCJN) justice José Ramón Cossío having also declared the decree to be “evidently unconstitutional”, López Obrador’s latest move to protect his Fourth Transformation agenda could well be challenged in the courts. |
In brief: Unemployment falls in Mexico but informality rises |
* Mexico’s national statistics institute (Inegi) has released the results from its latest national employment survey (Enoe) for the July-September 2021 quarter which show that the unemployment rate in Mexico reached 4.2%, corresponding to 2.5m people being unemployed. This is down from 5.2% unemployment registered in the same quarter in 2020, when there were stronger impacts from the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic. The Enoe also shows that Mexico’s economically active population – people over the age of 15 who are employed or seeking employment – has grown by 4.7m compared with the same quarter in 2020 and totalled 58.3m, equivalent to 59.4% of the overall population aged 15 and over. Meanwhile, the underemployment rate fell to 12.9% in the third quarter of 2021, from 16.9% in the same quarter in 2020. However, the same figures showed that the number of people employed in the informal sector totalled 31.4m, up 3.9m on the same period in 2020 and equivalent to 56.3% of the employed population. |
Southern Cone |
CHILE: Campaign kicks off for presidential run-off |
On 22 November the first opinion polls for the 19 December presidential second round run-off were published, which showed far-right candidate José Antonio Kast and left-winger Gabriel Boric in a technical tie. Analysis: A Cadem opinion poll conducted between 16-19 November showed Kast (who won the 21 November first round by 27.9% to 25.8%) and Boric each with 39% support. Another poll, by Pulso Ciudadano (conducted 9-12 November) also showed a virtual tie, with 35.9% for Boric and 35% for Kast.
Looking Ahead: Ahead of the run-off, the two candidates will try and secure endorsements as quickly as possible. Perhaps trying to maximise his leverage, Parisi has said his proposed ‘digital consultation’ will be held in the first half of December, very close to polling day. |
In brief: Chile’s congress approves 2022 budget proposal |
* Chile’s lower chamber has approved the government’s proposed 2022 state budget, which is for C$60.7trn (US$82.1bn). This represents a 3.7% increase on the approved 2021 budget, but actually equates to a 22.5% reduction in real spending this year, as extraordinary expenditures related to the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic are expected to bring the 2021 budget execution to Cl$78.2trn (US$99.56bn). The government led by President Sebastián Piñera highlights as priorities: health (the budget for which will increase by 11.6%); children (the social development & families ministry received a 12% increase); and public investment (the government highlights increases of 11.6% and 8% for the ministries of public works and housing respectively), among other things. Finance Minister Rodrigo Cerdo also said that the budget was in line with the government’s priority of “fiscal sustainability”. |