LatinNews Daily - 24 November 2021 |
Main Briefing |
VENEZUELA: EU observers report irregularities in regional elections |
On 23 November, the European Union’s electoral observation mission (EU-EOM) published its preliminary report on the 21 November regional elections in Venezuela, highlighting “irregularities” in the electoral process but stating that the process had improved compared to previous election cycles. Analysis: The EU-EOM’s preliminary report indicates that the elections were fairer than many in the opposition have claimed, although it underscores fundamental concerns about the electoral process. The report claims that voter coercion was widespread, and that the ruling Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela (PSUV) had an inbuilt advantage through the irregular use of government funds in campaigning. Nonetheless, the report found no evidence of ballot manipulation, undermining the arguments of many in Venezuela’s opposition and the international community that the election was “stolen” by President Nicolás Maduro’s government. An uneven playing field was always going to be the best-case scenario for the opposition, and the onus was on opposition leader Juan Guaidó to drive up high turnout and unite Venezuela’s fragmented opposition parties in a broad coalition, neither of which happened.
Looking Ahead: Santos said that she will return to Venezuela “at the end of January or the beginning of February” to present the EU-EOM’s final report. |
Andean |
In brief: Peru’s gov’t presents 2022 budget proposal |
* Peru’s government has presented congress with its 2022 budget proposal, which envisages spending of PEN197.0bn (US$49.11bn) – a 7.6% increase on the 2021 budget. Of this, PEN139.8bn would go to the central government, PEN35.5bn to regional governments, and 21.5bn to local governments. The budget proposes spending PEN35.7bn on education (+7.85% on 2021), PEN22.0bn on healthcare (+6%), while the amount set aside for servicing the central government’s debt is PEN22.1bn. The government is also proposing spending PEN5.6bn on new infrastructure projects, and PEN1.9bn on delivering its planned agrarian reform, among other things. |
Brazil |
BRAZIL: Soya producers slam EU deforestation law |
On 23 November, the Associação Brasileira dos Produtores de Soja (Aprosoja), an organisation representing soya producers in Brazil, released a statement slamming new legislation proposed by the European Union (EU) which seeks to ban imports linked to deforestation as “trade protectionism dressed up as environmental concern”. Analysis: The European Commission presented a law on 17 November which would set mandatory due diligence rules for importers of soya, beef, palm oil, wood, cocoa, and coffee (as well as some derived products such as chocolate), in an attempt to stop imports linked to deforestation. The EU framed this as an important step towards meeting the pledge made at the COP26 climate summit to end deforestation by 2030 – a pledge also signed by Brazil, which has even brought forward its own zero deforestation target to 2028. Yet Aprosoja’s strongly worded response to the EU provides further evidence that this pledge is little more than empty words on Brazil’s part.
Looking Ahead: Both the EU’s proposed legislation (which must be passed by member states) and the reaction to it in Brazil could further impact the stalled trade agreement between the EU and the Southern Common Market (Mercosur); the deal is yet to be ratified amid an ongoing impasse over Mercosur countries’ – and notably Brazil’s – environmental commitments. |
In brief: Brazil’s sugarcane harvest to hit 10-year low |
* The Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (Conab), the logistics arm of Brazil’s agriculture ministry (Mapa), has released new projections for the country’s sugarcane harvest, which is expected to slump due to the effects of adverse weather. The Conab expects Brazil’s 2021/2022 sugarcane harvest to yield 568.4m tonnes (t), down 13.2% on the 2020/2021 harvest. This would reportedly be the smallest sugarcane harvest since the 2011/2012 season. The Conab explains this by citing the unusual frosts which swept through some key producing states, such as São Paulo, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Paraná, in June-July this year. The Conab further notes that the lower harvest is already impacting exports, with sugar exports in the first seven months of the 2021/2022 harvest (April-October) down 17.9% compared with a year earlier, with lower supply pushing up prices on the domestic market and reducing exports. Brazil is the world’s largest producer and exporter of sugarcane. |
Central America & Caribbean |
HONDURAS: Violence concerns grow ahead of election |
On 23 November the United Nations (UN) High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), Michelle Bachelet expressed her “deep concern” about political violence in Honduras. Analysis: With less than a week until the 28 November general election, fears regarding violence are mounting ahead of the vote, which surveys suggest could produce a victory for Xiomara Castro, the leftist presidential candidate for opposition alliance ‘Alianza por el Pueblo’ over Tegucigalpa mayor Nasry Asfura, of President Juan Orlando Hernández’s conservative ruling Partido Nacional (PN). This has sparked concerns regarding a repeat of the deadly post-electoral violence which afflicted the 2017 election, which was widely slammed as fraudulent, and comes amid other fears regarding the integrity of the vote.
Looking Ahead: In its report, Cespad is also warning of possible issues involving operational procedures on voting day itself, due to delays in the acquisition of services and equipment related to the preliminary rapid vote count (TREP) system and biometric equipment to carry out fingerprinting at polling stations (JRVs). |
In brief: Panama’s economic activity posts strong growth |
* Panama’s national statistics institute (Inec) has released figures which show that the country’s monthly indicator of economic activity (Imae) posted year-on-year growth of 18.02% in September. This brings the accumulated growth in the first nine months of 2021 to 14.94% compared with the same period in 2020, indicating continued recovery from the impact of the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic which caused Panama’s GDP to shrink by 17.9% in 2020. It cites mining, trade, construction, other community, social & personal services, transport, and storage & communications as sectors which posted a good performance. |
Mexico |
MEXICO: Backlash against decree seeking to fast-track megaprojects |
On 23 November Mexico’s President Andrés Manuel López Obrador defended a decree announced the previous day which declares infrastructure projects carried out by the federal government to be an issue of national security. Analysis: The decree has produced a wave of criticism both locally and abroad, as well as complaints that it is unconstitutional. President López Obrador’s critics argue that it undermines his insistence that his left-wing Movimiento Regeneración Nacional (Morena) government is committed to transparency and accountability and it has subjected the president to fresh claims of authoritarianism and fears regarding the rule of law and separation of powers in Mexico.
Looking Ahead: The decree is also stoking concern from abroad at a time when other proposed reforms, such as the government’s controversial electricity reform, have sparked fears about the investment climate in Mexico. Yesterday José Miguel Vivanco, the Americas director of US-based NGO Human Rights Watch, tweeted that “every day it becomes more evident that President López Obrador believes himself to be above the law.” |
In brief: Mexico’s López Obrador reconsiders pick to head up Banxico |
* Mexico’s former finance minister Arturo Herrera (2019-2021), who President Andrés Manuel López Obrador had previously indicated he intended to nominate as the next president of the central bank (Banxico), has said he could “confirm” that López Obrador told him last week he had “decided to reconsider” his decision. Herrera was named in June to succeed Banxico governor Alejandro Díaz de León, whose term expires in December – an appointment which was well received by the markets. López Obrador has failed to provide reasons for this decision to reconsider the appointment. The uncertainty over who will take over at the helm and the direction of monetary policy comes at a time of high inflation and speculation regarding future rises in interest rates. |
Southern Cone |
URUGUAY: Support for ruling coalition remains solid |
A Factum survey published on 23 November shows support for the ruling centre-right coalition in Uruguay remains high at 50%, while the left-wing opposition coalition Frente Amplio (FA) is backed by 40% of respondents. Analysis: The survey brings broadly good news for President Luis Alberto Lacalle Pou, who in March will have completed the first two years of his five-year presidential term. It showed that if general elections were to be held now, his ‘multicolour’ coalition would win, with a 10-percentage point advantage over the Left. This is consistent with Lacalle Pou’s high personal approval rating.
Looking Ahead: A separate poll by Cifra focusing on the leadership contest within the FA suggests that Orsi is ahead, with 31% of the general population supporting him, against 12% backing Cosse, followed by former president José Mujica (2010-2015) and former mayor of Montevideo Daniel Martínez, each with 4%. |
In brief: Argentina’s economic activity increases in September |
* Argentina’s national statistics institute (Indec) has released new figures which show that economic activity grew 11.6% in September compared with the same month in 2020. Compared with August, economic activity rose by 1.2%, marking the fourth consecutive monthly increase. The largest year-on-year jumps in economic activity were in community, social & personal services (66.9%) and hotels & restaurants (59.1%), although the total yearly increase was driven predominantly by growth in industrial manufacturing (10.1%) and retail (10.1%). Meanwhile, Indec reported reductions in economic activity in the fishing sector (-9.6%) and in agriculture, livestock, hunting & forestry (-1.7%). |