LatinNews Daily - 26 November 2021 |
Main Briefing |
PERU: Opposition presents motion of impeachment against Castillo |
On 25 November, right-wing opposition parties in Peru’s congress presented a motion of impeachment against President Pedro Castillo. Analysis: The impeachment motion accuses Castillo of “moral incapacity” – the same offence that was used to justify the impeachment of former president Martín Vizcarra (2018-2020). It was widely expected that the opposition would at some point seek to remove Castillo from office, with right-wing deputies regularly calling for his impeachment over the course of his scandal-ridden first four months in office. As things stand, the three parties whose members signed the impeachment motion lack the numbers to force an impeachment trial, and Castillo seems likely to avoid that fate. Nonetheless, all eyes will be on the centre-right parties that did not sign the motion but which have been broadly critical of Castillo; if they move decisively against the president, an impeachment trial could ensue.
Looking Ahead: No date has yet been set for the debate of the impeachment motion. The three right-wing parties whose members signed the impeachment petition have 43 deputies between them, falling short of the 52 votes that would be needed to trigger an impeachment trial. Much will depend on whether the calls for impeachment gain traction with the centre-right Alianza para el Progreso (15 seats) and Podemos Perú (5 seats). |
Andean |
In brief: Bolivia’s gov’t presents 2022 budget proposal |
* Bolivia’s economy and finance minister, Marcelo Montenegro, has presented the government's national budget proposal for 2022, which envisages spending of B$235.09bn (US$34.07bn) – a 2.9% increase on the approved version of the 2021 budget. The proposed budget plans for an increased tax haul of 12.1% compared to 2021, which will be used to fund a 25% increase in public investment. Montenegro said that the government expects Bolivia’s GDP to grow by 5.1% in 2022, and for the fiscal deficit to decrease from 9.7% to 8% of GDP. The budget proposal must now be debated and approved or modified by congress. |
Brazil |
BRAZIL: Bolsonaro defends judicial protection for police who kill |
On 25 November, Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro defended giving legal protection to police officers who kill in the line of duty. Analysis: These comments come in the wake of another high-profile deadly police operation in the state of Rio de Janeiro late last week, which prompted calls for a thorough investigation from the United Nations (UN). In defending that police officers who kill in the line of duty be protected from prosecution via a legal mechanism known as the ‘exclusion from illegality’, Bolsonaro is harking back to a promise he made as presidential candidate in 2018, but has so far been unable to deliver.
Looking Ahead: The tough-on-crime public security agenda was an important part of Bolsonaro’s presidential campaign in 2018, and he may return to it as he gears up for his re-election campaign ahead of the October 2022 general election; public security officers, notably members of the military police, form part of his support base. |
In brief: FDI up slightly over the year in Brazil |
* Brazil’s central bank (BCB) has released new figures which show that foreign direct investment (FDI) to the country totalled US$2.5bn in October, a figure that was down from the US$3.1bn received in October 2020. However, in the 12 months to October 2021, FDI was up slightly to US$49.2bn (equivalent to 3.06% of GDP), from US$45.9bn (3.05% of GDP) a year earlier. These FDI figures were released as part of data on Brazil’s external sector, which show that the country recorded a balance of payments deficit of US$4.5bn in October, compared with a US$1.2bn balance of payments deficit in October 2020. |
Central America & Caribbean |
HONDURAS: EU observer mission urges peace ahead of vote |
On 25 November Željana Zovko, the head of the European Union Electoral Observer Mission (EU-EOM) in Honduras, urged that the 28 November general elections be held in a peaceful and transparent manner. Analysis: Zovko’s call comes amid concerns about electoral violence and fraud ahead of the vote, in which the presidency, vice presidency, all seats in the 128-member unicameral legislature and 298 mayoralties are up for grabs. Fears regarding electoral violence and fraud have mounted as surveys show former first lady (2006-2009) Xiomara Castro, of the leftist main opposition alliance Alianza por el Pueblo, ahead of Tegucigalpa mayor Nesry Asfura, of the ruling Partido Nacional (PN), ahead of the vote, in which a simple majority is required to win. Castro has previously warned that democracy was being threatened by the PN, which election watchers point out has a huge stake in the election given that a defeat for the ruling party, which has been in office since 2010, could open up the possibility of President Juan Orlando Hernández, whose own contentious election in 2017 was slammed as fraudulent and triggered post-electoral violence, facing possible action over drug trafficking allegations in the US.
Looking Ahead: Amid concerns of fraud, violence and operational glitches on voting day, the elections are due to be observed by missions from the OAS as well as the EU. |
In brief: Panama customs workers on strike |
* Panama’s association of customs workers (ANFA) has begun a strike calling for various bonuses and labour incentives to be paid. General director of Panama’s national customs authority (ANA) Tayra Barsallo said that the economy & finance ministry (MEF) had approved the necessary funds to pay the bonuses and urged ANFA to call off the strike. The private sector lobby Cámara de Comercio, Industria y Agricultura de Panamá (CCIAP) urged ANFA to lift the strike, warning that it was causing daily losses of over US$27m. It estimated that 1,200 containers containing an average of US$20,000 worth of goods will be prevented from entering the country each day and that around 300 export containers, each with an approximate value of US$10,000, will be prevented from leaving the country.
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Mexico |
MEXICO: Violent clashes mar gender violence protests |
On 25 November thousands of people took to the streets of Mexico City and other cities across Mexico to protest against gender violence, with at least three people killed during demonstrations. Analysis: The protesters condemned not just gender violence, which claims the lives of at least 10 women a day in the country, but also the lack of political will on the part of the government led by President Andrés Manuel López Obrador to address the issue. Although feminist groups supported López Obrador’s presidential candidacy in 2018, the head of state is conservative on social issues, such as abortion and marriage equality, and has taken no action to combat the rising tide of femicides in the country.
Looking Ahead: Protests against gender violence and in support of the decriminalisation of abortion will continue to pick up support in Mexico unless the government addresses the demands of protesters. But this is unlikely as López Obrador has publicly denigrated feminists who have criticised his government, accusing them of serving the “conservative opposition”. |
In brief: Inegi revises down Mexico’s Q3 GDP growth |
* Mexico’s national statistics institute (Inegi) has released new figures which show that Mexico’s GDP contracted 0.4% in the July-September 2021 quarter, in seasonally-adjusted terms compared with the previous quarter. This is a bigger contraction that the 0.2% decline initially reported at the end of October, which signalled the first quarterly decline since the Mexican economy began recovering from the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic which struck in March 2020. The updated Inegi figures showed that the tertiary sector (services) declined 0.9% compared with the previous quarter while the primary (agriculture) and secondary (manufacturing) sectors were up 1.3% and 0.3% respectively. In annual terms Mexico’s GDP grew 4.7% in the third quarter of 2021 compared with the same quarter in 2020, with the primary sector up 0.3%; the secondary sector up 5.1% and the tertiary sector up by 4.4%. |
Southern Cone |
ARGENTINA: Dollar shortage drives new travel restrictions |
On 25 November, 24 hours before the start of ‘Black Friday’ online discounts, the Argentine central bank issued an order prohibiting the sale of holidays and foreign travel through credit-card based quotas. Analysis At this time of year many Argentines are planning their summer holidays. Credit card companies, airlines, and travel agents usually offer payment of foreign holidays in quotas. However, concerned over its dwindling US dollar reserves the central bank (BCRA) has banned such payments. In normal times there is a net annual foreign currency outflow of US$5bn on the tourism account, as the expenditure by Argentines travelling abroad exceeds that by foreign tourists visiting Argentina. The latest measures are intended to cut back that net outflow
Looking Ahead: Since the proposed rescheduling would extend well beyond the current government’s remaining two years in office, an agreement with the political opposition is seen as an essential part of the solution. There is, however, little sign of the expected cross-party talks, which increases the possibility of further delays and foreign currency restrictions. |
In brief: Public tender opened for gas pipeline project |
* Argentina’s President Alberto Fernández has confirmed that construction of the planned Néstor Kirchner natural gas pipeline will go ahead, increasing Argentina’s hydrocarbon transport capacity and increasing exports to neighbouring countries. Fernández said that a public tender will be opened for the US$40bn project, which he said would enable Argentina to transport 24m cubic metres of gas per day and will result in savings of US$1.45bn per year. The pipeline is viewed as necessary to reduce bottlenecks around the Vaca Muerta shale oil and gas fields in Neuquén, Patagonia. |