LatinNews Daily - 10 December 2021 |
Main Briefing |
NICARAGUA: Gov’t establishes relations with China; cuts ties with Taiwan |
On 10 December Nicaragua’s government led by President Daniel Ortega announced that it had established diplomatic relations with mainland China and severed ties with Taiwan. Analysis: Nicaragua has become the fifth country in the sub-region, historically a bastion of international support for Taiwan, to sever ties with Taipei in favour of Beijing in recent years. This is a major coup for Beijing in its quest to secure unanimous support towards recognising the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The move is not a huge surprise given the Ortega government is seeking much-needed foreign assistance amid growing isolation on the international stage following the 7 November election which produced a re-election victory for Ortega but was widely slammed as a sham – this isolation was evidenced in Nicaragua’s recent decision to leave the Organisation of American States (OAS). It comes amid ever-deteriorating ties with the US, its most important trade ally, which is threatening further sanctions including Nicaragua’s possible suspension from the US-Central America Free Trade Agreement (Cafta).
Looking Ahead: Nicaragua’s announcement will draw particular alarm in the US at a time when president-elect Xiomara Castro in neighbouring Honduras has similarly floated severing ties with Taiwan in favour of mainland China in order to address Honduras’s debt, although since winning the 28 November general election her advisors have cast doubt over this pledge. |
Andean |
PERU: NGOs demand implementation of ruling on prior consultation |
On 9 December, several Peruvian civil and indigenous organisations called on the justice ministry to publish in the official gazette a supreme court (CSJ) ruling from January on the right to prior consultation. Analysis: The ruling, which would toughen standards for consultation with communities regarding public work contracts, has not taken effect due to it not having been published in the official gazette. Indigenous groups are losing patience with the government over the issue.
Looking Ahead: On 13 December, organisations including Aidesep and DAR will hold a meeting with the transport and communications ministry (MTC) to demand increased consultation on the Hidrovía Amazónica dredging project in Loreto region, which will provide some insight into the government’s response to the CSJ ruling. |
In brief: Colombia’s Ecopetrol announces planned investments |
* Colombia’s state-owned oil company Ecopetrol has announced its investment plan for 2022, under which it expects to spend between US$4.8bn and US$5.8bn to deliver “profitable growth in production.” In a statement, Ecopetrol said that “these investments will support production of between 700,000 and 705,000 barrels per day (bpd), transported volumes greater than a million bpd, and the expansion of the transmission side of the business.” Of those investments, approximately 70% will go towards projects in Colombia, while the remaining 30% will be spent on projects in the US, Brazil, Peru, and Chile. |
Brazil |
BRAZIL: Bolsonaro makes contradictory claims on corruption |
On 9 December, Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro said that his government is free from corruption, a claim made many times before although it contradicts both facts and comments made by the president himself a few days earlier. Analysis: Bolsonaro’s anti-corruption discourse formed an important part of his election campaign in 2018 and helped attract voters disillusioned with traditional parties tarnished by corruption scandals. However, his words have often rung hollow: many of his family members and close allies are under investigation for corruption; he has joined forces with a political party led by a politician convicted for graft; and his government has been hit by suspicions of corruption, notably regarding the procurement of coronavirus (Covid-19) vaccines. With anti-corruption judge (and, still for some, hero) Sergio Moro expected to challenge Bolsonaro’s re-election bid next year, the president will struggle to reclaim the anti-corruption narrative that served him so well in the last election.
Looking Ahead: Bolsonaro, who faces criticism for eroding democracy as well as for his disputable record fighting corruption, is expected to evoke his government’s anti-corruption plan during his participation today at the Summit for Democracy, organised by US President Joe Biden. |
In brief: Brazil increases forecast for record grain harvest |
* Brazil’s national statistics institute (Ibge) has released its second projection for the 2022 harvest of grains, cereals, legumes and oilseeds, which predicts a record yield next year. According to the Ibge, the 2022 season will yield a harvest of 278m tonnes (t), a 2.7% increase on its earlier forecast, and a 10% increase, or 25.2m t, on the 2021 harvest. The 2021 harvest, which has been hit by a drought and frosts, is expected to come in at 252.8m t, down 0.5% on 2020. The Ibge expects an increase in soya, maize, and sorghum, amongst other things, next year, while it predicts that production of rice and wheat will fall. |
Central America & Caribbean |
In brief: Cuba approves more MSMEs |
* Cuba’s economy & planning ministry (MEP) has approved 113 new micro, small and medium-size enterprises (MSMEs). In line with new legislation which took effect on 20 September, permitting MSMEs to incorporate for the first time since 1968, this brings the total number of MSMEs and non-agricultural cooperatives in the country to 1,014 (of which 18 are non-agricultural cooperatives), which the government says has created 15,801 new jobs. The legislation was the latest bid by the government to shore up the domestic economy, which shrank 11% in 2020 due to the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic and US economic sanctions. |
Mexico |
MEXICO: FGR to investigate fatal migrant truck crash? |
On 9 December, Mexico’s federal attorney general’s office (FGR) announced that?it was launching?an investigation into a road accident that killed over 50 migrants in Chiapas state.?? Analysis:? The?accident,?which has left at least 54?dead and over?100 injured, is one of the worst single-day death tolls for migrants?in?Mexico’s history. The incident will pile pressure on?President?Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s?government?over the protection of migrant rights at a time when?it faces?increased scrutiny following the recent resumption of the controversial?migrant protection protocol (MPP), also known as the ‘Remain in Mexico’ programme.?
Looking Ahead:?The incident is the latest contradiction to?the?US and Mexico's pledge?to “prioritise respect for and the guarantee of [migrants’] human rights”.?In a week where both?governments?have come under fire for?restarting the unpopular MPP,?the accident?will intensify?pressure on?López Obrador?to?put the safeguarding of migrants before?US demands to stem migration flows.?? |
In brief: Mexico’s inflation accelerates |
* Mexico’s national statistics institute (Inegi) has released its latest figures on the national consumer price index (INPC) which show that monthly inflation stood at 1.14% in November, up from 0.84% the previous month. This brings the annual rate to 7.37%, more than twice the 3% inflation target figure for 2021 set by Mexico’s central bank (Banxico). The latest inflation figures reinforce speculation that Banxico will raise its benchmark interest rate for a fifth consecutive time when it meets next week for the final monetary policy meeting of the year, following increases of 25 basis points in November, September, August and June. |
Southern Cone |
CHILE: ICC shelves Piñera investigation |
On 9 December, Chile’s foreign ministry announced that the International Criminal Court (ICC) at The Hague was dropping an investigation into crimes against humanity allegedly committed by President Sebastián Piñera and other officials during the wave of street protests that commenced in October 2019. Analysis: The case was filed at the ICC last April by various Chilean human rights groups and by former Spanish judge Baltasar Garzón. It alleged the president was responsible for serious human rights violations committed in the government’s response to the protests, which left around 30 dead, 460 people with eye injuries, and over 8,800 allegations of crimes committed by the state security forces. The foreign ministry said the ICC had concluded there was not sufficient evidence to merit further investigation of crimes committed in areas over which it had jurisdiction.
Looking Ahead: Deep left-right divisions in Chile were intensified by the street protests of 2019 and remain a key factor in the presidential race. |
In brief: Argentina loosens restrictions on beef exports |
* Argentina’s minister for agriculture, livestock and fishing, Julián Domínguez, has presented a new plan to flexibilise beef exports in 2022 and 2023, after these were restricted earlier this year to stabilise prices in the domestic market. Following a meeting with industry leaders, Domínguez said that there will be “complete opening [for export] to emerging markets for category D, E, and F cows.” However, he said that restrictions would remain in place on the export of seven popular cuts of meat, including rump, shoulder, and various cuts of flank. Domínguez said that “the decision of President Alberto Fernández is to increase meat production, both by increasing Argentines’ access [to meat] and by generating predictability and confidence in the supply chain.” |